Skip to main content
Top
Gepubliceerd in:

20-03-2019 | Original Article

Wikipedia outperforms individuals when it comes to hindsight bias

Auteurs: Aileen Oeberst, Ina von der Beck, Ulrike Cress, Steffen Nestler

Gepubliceerd in: Psychological Research | Uitgave 6/2020

Log in om toegang te krijgen
share
DELEN

Deel dit onderdeel of sectie (kopieer de link)

  • Optie A:
    Klik op de rechtermuisknop op de link en selecteer de optie “linkadres kopiëren”
  • Optie B:
    Deel de link per e-mail

Abstract

Hindsight bias—the tendency to overestimate in hindsight what one knew in foresight—is a robust and pervasive human error. A recent study with Wikipedia articles, however, found evidence for a hindsight bias only for disasters but not for any other event category (e.g., elections). Although this might suggest Wikipedia articles to be less biased than individuals, alternative explanations had not been ruled out. The present study set out to answer this question by comparing individuals’ and Wikipedia’s representation of the very same event in foresight and hindsight. In particular, we made use of a state election and surveyed one part of participants before and after the outcome and had other participants rate the corresponding Wikipedia article versions with regard to the extent to which the article was suggestive of a particular outcome and presented it as foreseeable and inevitable. In line with prior research and our hypotheses, we found a hindsight bias at the individual level but not in Wikipedia articles. Applying Bayesian statistics, there was substantial support for the null hypothesis (i.e., no hindsight bias) in Wikipedia. By controlling for the potential impact of participants’ own hindsight bias on their article ratings we can rule out alternative explanations of our findings. Therefore, our findings are the first to demonstrate Wikipedia’s superiority over individuals when it comes to hindsight bias.
Voetnoten
2
(302 including inactive language versions); https://​en.​wikipedia.​org/​wiki/​List_​of_​Wikipedias (2018-09-03).
 
15
Note that every edit of an article in Wikipedia is saved as a separate article version, which allows access to any article version that ever existed in the course of constructing the current article. This feature of wiki technology thus enabled a comparison of article versions that existed prior to a particular event (i.e., foresight article versions) to article versions after that event (i.e., hindsight article versions).
 
Literatuur
go back to reference Adler, B. T., Alfaro, L., de Mola-Velasco, S. M., Rosso, P., & West, A. G. (2011). Wikipedia vandalism detection: Combining natural language, metadata, and reputation features. In A. Gelbukh (Ed.), Computational linguistics and intelligent text processing (pp. 277–288). Berlin: Springer. Adler, B. T., Alfaro, L., de Mola-Velasco, S. M., Rosso, P., & West, A. G. (2011). Wikipedia vandalism detection: Combining natural language, metadata, and reputation features. In A. Gelbukh (Ed.), Computational linguistics and intelligent text processing (pp. 277–288). Berlin: Springer.
go back to reference Ash, I. K. (2009). Surprise, memory, and retrospective judgment making: Testing cognitive reconstruction theories of the hindsight bias effect. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 35, 916–933.PubMed Ash, I. K. (2009). Surprise, memory, and retrospective judgment making: Testing cognitive reconstruction theories of the hindsight bias effect. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 35, 916–933.PubMed
go back to reference Blank, H., Fischer, V., & Erdfelder, E. (2003). Hindsight bias in political elections. Memory, 11, 491–504.PubMed Blank, H., Fischer, V., & Erdfelder, E. (2003). Hindsight bias in political elections. Memory, 11, 491–504.PubMed
go back to reference Blank, H., & Nestler, S. (2006). Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics. British Journal of Social Psychology, 45, 149 – 160.PubMed Blank, H., & Nestler, S. (2006). Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics. British Journal of Social Psychology, 45, 149 – 160.PubMed
go back to reference Blank, H., Nestler, S., von Collani, G., & Fischer, V. (2008). How many hindsight biases are there? Cognition, 106, 1408–1440.PubMed Blank, H., Nestler, S., von Collani, G., & Fischer, V. (2008). How many hindsight biases are there? Cognition, 106, 1408–1440.PubMed
go back to reference Brown, A. R. (2011). Wikipedia as a data source for political scientists: Accuracy and completeness of coverage. PS: Political Science & Politics, 44(2), 339–343. Brown, A. R. (2011). Wikipedia as a data source for political scientists: Accuracy and completeness of coverage. PS: Political Science & Politics, 44(2), 339–343.
go back to reference Bukszar, E., & Connolly, T. (1988). Hindsight bias and strategic choice: Some problems in learning from experience. Academy of Management Journal, 31, 628–641. Bukszar, E., & Connolly, T. (1988). Hindsight bias and strategic choice: Some problems in learning from experience. Academy of Management Journal, 31, 628–641.
go back to reference Callahan, E. S., & Herring, S. C. (2011). Cultural bias in Wikipedia content on famous persons. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 62, 1899–1915. Callahan, E. S., & Herring, S. C. (2011). Cultural bias in Wikipedia content on famous persons. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 62, 1899–1915.
go back to reference Calvillo, D. P., & Rutchick, A. M. (2014). Political knowledge reduces hindsight memory distortion in election judgements. Journal of Cognitive Psychology, 26, 213–220. Calvillo, D. P., & Rutchick, A. M. (2014). Political knowledge reduces hindsight memory distortion in election judgements. Journal of Cognitive Psychology, 26, 213–220.
go back to reference Casebourne, I., Davies, C., Fernandes, M., & Norman, N. (2012). Assessing the accuracy and quality of Wikipedia entries compared to popular online encyclopaedias: A comparative preliminary study across disciplines in English, Spanish and Arabic. Epic, Brighton, UK. Accedido o, 9(10), 2012. Casebourne, I., Davies, C., Fernandes, M., & Norman, N. (2012). Assessing the accuracy and quality of Wikipedia entries compared to popular online encyclopaedias: A comparative preliminary study across disciplines in English, Spanish and Arabic. Epic, Brighton, UK. Accedido o, 9(10), 2012.
go back to reference Chen, S., Shechter, D., & Chaiken, S. (1996). Getting at the truth or getting along: Accuracy- versus impression-motivated heuristic and systematic processing. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 262–275. Chen, S., Shechter, D., & Chaiken, S. (1996). Getting at the truth or getting along: Accuracy- versus impression-motivated heuristic and systematic processing. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 262–275.
go back to reference Choi, D.-W., & Choi, I. (2010). A comparison of hindsight bias in groups and individuals: The moderating role of plausibility. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 40, 325–343. Choi, D.-W., & Choi, I. (2010). A comparison of hindsight bias in groups and individuals: The moderating role of plausibility. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 40, 325–343.
go back to reference Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., & Willham, C. F. (1991). The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 48, 147–168. Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., & Willham, C. F. (1991). The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 48, 147–168.
go back to reference Del Vicario, M. et al. (2016). The spreading of misinformation online. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(3), 554–559. Del Vicario, M. et al. (2016). The spreading of misinformation online. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(3), 554–559.
go back to reference Erdfelder, E., & Buchner, A. (1998). Decomposing the hindsight bias: A multinomial processing tree model for separating recollection and reconstruction in hindsight. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 24, 387–414. Erdfelder, E., & Buchner, A. (1998). Decomposing the hindsight bias: A multinomial processing tree model for separating recollection and reconstruction in hindsight. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 24, 387–414.
go back to reference Fallis, D. (2008). Toward an epistemology of Wikipedia. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 59, 1662–1674. Fallis, D. (2008). Toward an epistemology of Wikipedia. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 59, 1662–1674.
go back to reference Faul, F., Erdfelder, E., Lang, A.-G., & Buchner, A. (2007). G*Power 3: A flexible statistical power analysis program for the social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences. Behavior Research Methods, 39, 175–191.PubMed Faul, F., Erdfelder, E., Lang, A.-G., & Buchner, A. (2007). G*Power 3: A flexible statistical power analysis program for the social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences. Behavior Research Methods, 39, 175–191.PubMed
go back to reference Fischer, I., & Budescu, D. V. (1995). Desirability and hindsight biases in predicting results of a multi-party election. In J.-P. Caverni, M. Bar-Hillel, F. H. Barron & H. Jungermann (Eds.), Contributions to decision making (Vol. 1, pp. 193–211). Amsterdam: Elsevier. Fischer, I., & Budescu, D. V. (1995). Desirability and hindsight biases in predicting results of a multi-party election. In J.-P. Caverni, M. Bar-Hillel, F. H. Barron & H. Jungermann (Eds.), Contributions to decision making (Vol. 1, pp. 193–211). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
go back to reference Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288–299. Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288–299.
go back to reference Fischhoff, B. (1977). Perceived informativeness of facts. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 349–358. Fischhoff, B. (1977). Perceived informativeness of facts. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 349–358.
go back to reference Fischhoff, B., Gonzalez, R. M., Lerner, J. S., & Small, D. A. (2005). Evolving judgments of terror risks: Foresight, hindsight, and emotion. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 11, 124–139.PubMed Fischhoff, B., Gonzalez, R. M., Lerner, J. S., & Small, D. A. (2005). Evolving judgments of terror risks: Foresight, hindsight, and emotion. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 11, 124–139.PubMed
go back to reference Forte, A., & Bruckman, A. (2008). Scaling consensus: Increasing decentralization in Wikipedia governance. In Proceedings of the 41st annual Hawaii international conference on system sciences (HICSS’08). Washington, DC: IEEE. Forte, A., & Bruckman, A. (2008). Scaling consensus: Increasing decentralization in Wikipedia governance. In Proceedings of the 41st annual Hawaii international conference on system sciences (HICSS’08). Washington, DC: IEEE.
go back to reference Giles, J. (2005). Internet encyclopaedias go head to head. Nature, 438, 900–901.PubMed Giles, J. (2005). Internet encyclopaedias go head to head. Nature, 438, 900–901.PubMed
go back to reference Gowers, T., & Nielsen, M. (2009). Massively collaborative mathematics. Nature, 461, 879.PubMed Gowers, T., & Nielsen, M. (2009). Massively collaborative mathematics. Nature, 461, 879.PubMed
go back to reference Guilbault, R. L., Bryant, F. B., Brockway, J. H., & Posavac, E. J. (2004). A meta-analysis of research on hindsight bias. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 26, 103–117. Guilbault, R. L., Bryant, F. B., Brockway, J. H., & Posavac, E. J. (2004). A meta-analysis of research on hindsight bias. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 26, 103–117.
go back to reference Hastie, R. (1984). Causes and effects of causal attribution. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 44 – 56. Hastie, R. (1984). Causes and effects of causal attribution. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 44 – 56.
go back to reference Hawkins, S. A., & Hastie, R. (1990). Hindsight: Biased judgment of past events after the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin, 107, 311–327. Hawkins, S. A., & Hastie, R. (1990). Hindsight: Biased judgment of past events after the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin, 107, 311–327.
go back to reference Hecht, B., & Gergle, D. (2009). Measuring self-focus bias in community-maintained knowledge repositories. In Proceedings of the 4th international conference on communities and technologies (pp. 11–20). New York: ACM. Hecht, B., & Gergle, D. (2009). Measuring self-focus bias in community-maintained knowledge repositories. In Proceedings of the 4th international conference on communities and technologies (pp. 11–20). New York: ACM.
go back to reference Hecht, B., & Gergle, D. (2010). The tower of Babel meets web 2.0: User-generated content and its applications in a multilingual context. In CHI ‘10 Proceedings of the SIGCHI conference on human factors in computing systems (pp. 291–300). New York: ACM. Hecht, B., & Gergle, D. (2010). The tower of Babel meets web 2.0: User-generated content and its applications in a multilingual context. In CHI ‘10 Proceedings of the SIGCHI conference on human factors in computing systems (pp. 291–300). New York: ACM.
go back to reference Hewstone, M., Rubin, M., & Willis, H. (2002). Intergroup bias. Annual Review of Psychology, 53, 575–604.PubMed Hewstone, M., Rubin, M., & Willis, H. (2002). Intergroup bias. Annual Review of Psychology, 53, 575–604.PubMed
go back to reference Hoffrage, U., Hertwig, R., & Gigerenzer, G. (2000). Hindsight bias: A by-product of knowledge updating? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 26, 566–581.PubMed Hoffrage, U., Hertwig, R., & Gigerenzer, G. (2000). Hindsight bias: A by-product of knowledge updating? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 26, 566–581.PubMed
go back to reference Jarosz, A. F., & Wiley, J. (2014). What are the odds? A practical guide to computing and reporting Bayes factors. Journal of Problem Solving, 7, 2–9. Jarosz, A. F., & Wiley, J. (2014). What are the odds? A practical guide to computing and reporting Bayes factors. Journal of Problem Solving, 7, 2–9.
go back to reference Kalla, J. L., & Aronow, P. M. (2015). Editorial bias in crowd-sourced political information. PloS One, 10(9), e0136327.PubMedPubMedCentral Kalla, J. L., & Aronow, P. M. (2015). Editorial bias in crowd-sourced political information. PloS One, 10(9), e0136327.PubMedPubMedCentral
go back to reference Keegan, B., Gergle, D., & Contractor, N. (2011). Hot off the wiki: Dynamics, practices, and structures in Wikipedia’s coverage of the Tōhoku catastrophes. In Proceedings of the 7th international symposium on wikis and open collaboration (WikiSym’11) (pp. 105–113). New York: ACM Press. Keegan, B., Gergle, D., & Contractor, N. (2011). Hot off the wiki: Dynamics, practices, and structures in Wikipedia’s coverage of the Tōhoku catastrophes. In Proceedings of the 7th international symposium on wikis and open collaboration (WikiSym’11) (pp. 105–113). New York: ACM Press.
go back to reference Kelman, M., Fallas, D. E., & Folger, H. (1998). Decomposing hindsight bias. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 16, 251–269. Kelman, M., Fallas, D. E., & Folger, H. (1998). Decomposing hindsight bias. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 16, 251–269.
go back to reference Kittur, A., Chi, E. H., Pendleton, B. A., Suh, B., & Mytkowicz, T. (2007). Power of the few vs. wisdom of the crowd: Wikipedia and the rise of the bourgeoisie. In 25th annual ACM conference on human factors in computing systems (CHI), San Jose; CA. Kittur, A., Chi, E. H., Pendleton, B. A., Suh, B., & Mytkowicz, T. (2007). Power of the few vs. wisdom of the crowd: Wikipedia and the rise of the bourgeoisie. In 25th annual ACM conference on human factors in computing systems (CHI), San Jose; CA.
go back to reference Kittur, A., & Kraut, R. E. (2008). Harnessing the wisdom of crowds in Wikipedia: Quality through coordination. In Proceedings of the 2008 ACM conference on computer supported cooperative work (pp. 37–46). New York: ACM Press. Kittur, A., & Kraut, R. E. (2008). Harnessing the wisdom of crowds in Wikipedia: Quality through coordination. In Proceedings of the 2008 ACM conference on computer supported cooperative work (pp. 37–46). New York: ACM Press.
go back to reference Kolbitsch, J., & Maurer, H. (2006). The transformation of the web: How emerging communities shape the information we consume. Journal of Universal Computer Science, 12, 187–213. Kolbitsch, J., & Maurer, H. (2006). The transformation of the web: How emerging communities shape the information we consume. Journal of Universal Computer Science, 12, 187–213.
go back to reference Kunda, Z. (1990). The case for motivated reasoning. Psychological Bulletin, 108, 480–498.PubMed Kunda, Z. (1990). The case for motivated reasoning. Psychological Bulletin, 108, 480–498.PubMed
go back to reference Lamberty, P. K., Hellmann, J. H., & Oeberst, A. (2018). The winner knew it all? Conspiracy beliefs and hindsight perspective after the 2016 US general election. Personality and Individual Differences, 123, 236–240. Lamberty, P. K., Hellmann, J. H., & Oeberst, A. (2018). The winner knew it all? Conspiracy beliefs and hindsight perspective after the 2016 US general election. Personality and Individual Differences, 123, 236–240.
go back to reference Leary, M. R. (1982). Hindsight distortion and the 1980 presidential election. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 8, 257–263. Leary, M. R. (1982). Hindsight distortion and the 1980 presidential election. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 8, 257–263.
go back to reference Liao, Q. V., & Fu, W.-T. (2013). Beyond the filter bubble: Interactive effects of perceived threat and topic involvement on selective exposure to information. In Proceedings of the SIGCHI conference on human factors in computing systems (S. 2359–2368). ACM. http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2481326. Accessed 19 Mar 2019. Liao, Q. V., & Fu, W.-T. (2013). Beyond the filter bubble: Interactive effects of perceived threat and topic involvement on selective exposure to information. In Proceedings of the SIGCHI conference on human factors in computing systems (S. 2359–2368). ACM. http://​dl.​acm.​org/​citation.​cfm?​id=​2481326. Accessed 19 Mar 2019.
go back to reference Magnus, P. D. (2009). On trusting Wikipedia. Episteme, 6, 74–90. Magnus, P. D. (2009). On trusting Wikipedia. Episteme, 6, 74–90.
go back to reference Merz, M., & Döring, N. (2010). Aktive Beteiligung an Wikipedia aus sozial-kognitiver Perspektive. Active participation in Wikipedia from a social-cognitive perspective. Retrieved from http://purl.org/merz/20100926. Accessed 27 Nov 2012. Merz, M., & Döring, N. (2010). Aktive Beteiligung an Wikipedia aus sozial-kognitiver Perspektive. Active participation in Wikipedia from a social-cognitive perspective. Retrieved from http://​purl.​org/​merz/​20100926. Accessed 27 Nov 2012.
go back to reference Nestler, S., Blank, H., & Egloff, B. (2010). Hindsight ≠ hindsight: Experimentally induced dissociations between hindsight components. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 36, 1399–1413.PubMed Nestler, S., Blank, H., & Egloff, B. (2010). Hindsight ≠ hindsight: Experimentally induced dissociations between hindsight components. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 36, 1399–1413.PubMed
go back to reference Nestler, S., Blank, H., & von Collani, G. (2008). Hindsight bias doesn’t always come easy: Causal models, cognitive effort and creeping determinism. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 34, 1043–1054. Nestler, S., Blank, H., & von Collani, G. (2008). Hindsight bias doesn’t always come easy: Causal models, cognitive effort and creeping determinism. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 34, 1043–1054.
go back to reference Nestler, S., & Egloff, B. (2009). Increased or reversed? The effect of surprise on hindsight bias depends on the hindsight component. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 35, 1539–1544.PubMed Nestler, S., & Egloff, B. (2009). Increased or reversed? The effect of surprise on hindsight bias depends on the hindsight component. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 35, 1539–1544.PubMed
go back to reference Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of general psychology, 2(2), 175. Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of general psychology, 2(2), 175.
go back to reference Oeberst, A., de Vreeze, J., & Cress, U. (2018). The norm of neutrality in collaborative knowledge construction: A comparison between Wikipedia and the extreme right-wing Metapedia. In O. Zlatkin-Troitschanskaia, G. Wittum & A. Dengel (Eds.), Positive learning in the age of information (PLATO)—a blessing or a curse? (pp. 209–219). Wiesbaden: Springer. Oeberst, A., de Vreeze, J., & Cress, U. (2018). The norm of neutrality in collaborative knowledge construction: A comparison between Wikipedia and the extreme right-wing Metapedia. In O. Zlatkin-Troitschanskaia, G. Wittum & A. Dengel (Eds.), Positive learning in the age of information (PLATO)—a blessing or a curse? (pp. 209–219). Wiesbaden: Springer.
go back to reference Oeberst, A., Halatchliyski, I., Kimmerle, J., & Cress, U. (2014). Knowledge construction in Wikipedia: A systemic-constructivist analysis. Journal of the Learning Sciences, 23, 149–176. Oeberst, A., Halatchliyski, I., Kimmerle, J., & Cress, U. (2014). Knowledge construction in Wikipedia: A systemic-constructivist analysis. Journal of the Learning Sciences, 23, 149–176.
go back to reference Oeberst, A., von der Beck, I., Cress, U., Back, M. D., & Nestler, S. (2018). Biases in the production and reception of collective knowledge: The case of hindsight bias in Wikipedia. Psychological Research, 82, 1010–1026.PubMed Oeberst, A., von der Beck, I., Cress, U., Back, M. D., & Nestler, S. (2018). Biases in the production and reception of collective knowledge: The case of hindsight bias in Wikipedia. Psychological Research, 82, 1010–1026.PubMed
go back to reference Pennington, D. C. (1981). British firemen’s strike of 1977/78: Investigation of judgements in foresight and hindsight. Journal of Social Psychology, 20, 89–96. Pennington, D. C. (1981). British firemen’s strike of 1977/78: Investigation of judgements in foresight and hindsight. Journal of Social Psychology, 20, 89–96.
go back to reference Pentzold, C. (2009). Fixing the floating gap: The online encyclopaedia Wikipedia as a global memory place. Memory Studies, 2, 255–272. Pentzold, C. (2009). Fixing the floating gap: The online encyclopaedia Wikipedia as a global memory place. Memory Studies, 2, 255–272.
go back to reference Pezzo, M. V. (2003). Surprise, defense, or making sense: What removes the hindsight bias? Memory, 11, 421–441.PubMed Pezzo, M. V. (2003). Surprise, defense, or making sense: What removes the hindsight bias? Memory, 11, 421–441.PubMed
go back to reference Pohl, R. F. (2007). Ways to assess hindsight bias. Social Cognition, 25, 14–31. Pohl, R. F. (2007). Ways to assess hindsight bias. Social Cognition, 25, 14–31.
go back to reference Pohl, R. F. (2017). Cognitive illusions: Intriguing phenomena in thinking, judgment, and memory. London: Routledge. Pohl, R. F. (2017). Cognitive illusions: Intriguing phenomena in thinking, judgment, and memory. London: Routledge.
go back to reference Pohl, R. F., Bender, M., & Lachmann, G. (2002). Hindsight bias around the world. Experimental Psychology, 49, 270–282.PubMed Pohl, R. F., Bender, M., & Lachmann, G. (2002). Hindsight bias around the world. Experimental Psychology, 49, 270–282.PubMed
go back to reference Pohl, R. F., & Erdfelder, E. (2017). Hindsight bias. In R. F. Pohl (Ed.), Cognitive illusions: Intriguing phenomena in thinking, judgment, and memory (2nd ed., pp. 424–445). London: Routledge. Pohl, R. F., & Erdfelder, E. (2017). Hindsight bias. In R. F. Pohl (Ed.), Cognitive illusions: Intriguing phenomena in thinking, judgment, and memory (2nd ed., pp. 424–445). London: Routledge.
go back to reference Pohl, R. F., & Hell, W. (1996). No reduction in hindsight bias after complete information and repeated testing. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 49–58. Pohl, R. F., & Hell, W. (1996). No reduction in hindsight bias after complete information and repeated testing. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 49–58.
go back to reference Postmes, T., Spears, R., & Cihangir, S. (2001). Quality of decision making and group norms. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 80, 918–930.PubMed Postmes, T., Spears, R., & Cihangir, S. (2001). Quality of decision making and group norms. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 80, 918–930.PubMed
go back to reference Potthast, M., Stein, B., & Gerling, R. (2008). Automatic vandalism detection in Wikipedia. In C. Macdonald et al (Eds.), Advances in information retrieval. 30th European conference on IR research (ECIR 08) volume 4956 of lecture notes in computer science (pp 663–668), Springer: Berlin. Potthast, M., Stein, B., & Gerling, R. (2008). Automatic vandalism detection in Wikipedia. In C. Macdonald et al (Eds.), Advances in information retrieval. 30th European conference on IR research (ECIR 08) volume 4956 of lecture notes in computer science (pp 663–668), Springer: Berlin.
go back to reference Powell, J. L. (1988). A test of the knew-it-all-along effect in the 1984 presidential statewide elections. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 18, 760–773. Powell, J. L. (1988). A test of the knew-it-all-along effect in the 1984 presidential statewide elections. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 18, 760–773.
go back to reference Reagle, J., & Rhue, L. (2011). Gender bias in Wikipedia and Britannica. International Journal of Communication, 5, 1138–1158. Reagle, J., & Rhue, L. (2011). Gender bias in Wikipedia and Britannica. International Journal of Communication, 5, 1138–1158.
go back to reference Rheingold, H. (2002). Smart mobs: The next social revolution. Cambridge: Basic Books. Rheingold, H. (2002). Smart mobs: The next social revolution. Cambridge: Basic Books.
go back to reference Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D. (2012). Hindsight bias. Perspectives in Psychological Science, 7, 411–426. Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D. (2012). Hindsight bias. Perspectives in Psychological Science, 7, 411–426.
go back to reference Royal, C., & Kapila, D. (2009). What’s on Wikipedia, and what’s not… Assessing completeness of information. Social Science Computer Review, 27, 138–148. Royal, C., & Kapila, D. (2009). What’s on Wikipedia, and what’s not… Assessing completeness of information. Social Science Computer Review, 27, 138–148.
go back to reference Schkade, D. A., & Kilbourne, L. M. (1991). Expectation-outcome consistency and hindsight bias. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 49, 105–123. Schkade, D. A., & Kilbourne, L. M. (1991). Expectation-outcome consistency and hindsight bias. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 49, 105–123.
go back to reference Schulz-Hardt, S., Frey, D., Lüthgens, C., & Moscovici, S. (2000). Biased information search in group decision making. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78, 655–669.PubMed Schulz-Hardt, S., Frey, D., Lüthgens, C., & Moscovici, S. (2000). Biased information search in group decision making. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78, 655–669.PubMed
go back to reference Stahlberg, D., Eller, F., Maass, A., & Frey, D. (1995). We knew it all along: Hindsight bias in groups. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 63, 46–58. Stahlberg, D., Eller, F., Maass, A., & Frey, D. (1995). We knew it all along: Hindsight bias in groups. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 63, 46–58.
go back to reference Stvilia, B., Al-Faraj, A., & Yi, Y. (2009). Issues of cross-contextual information quality evaluation—the case of Arabic, English, and Korean Wikipedias. Library & Information Research, 31, 232–239. Stvilia, B., Al-Faraj, A., & Yi, Y. (2009). Issues of cross-contextual information quality evaluation—the case of Arabic, English, and Korean Wikipedias. Library & Information Research, 31, 232–239.
go back to reference Surowiecki, J. (2004). The wisdom of crowds. New York: Random House. Surowiecki, J. (2004). The wisdom of crowds. New York: Random House.
go back to reference Synodinos, N. E. (1986). Hindsight distortion: “I-knew-it-all-along and I was sure about it”. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 16, 107–117. Synodinos, N. E. (1986). Hindsight distortion: “I-knew-it-all-along and I was sure about it”. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 16, 107–117.
go back to reference Tapscott, D., & Williams, A. D. (2006). Wikinomics: How mass collaboration changes everything. New York: Portfolio. Tapscott, D., & Williams, A. D. (2006). Wikinomics: How mass collaboration changes everything. New York: Portfolio.
go back to reference Tykocinski, O. E. (2001). I never had a chance: Using hindsight tactics to mitigate disappointments. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 27, 376–382. Tykocinski, O. E. (2001). I never had a chance: Using hindsight tactics to mitigate disappointments. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 27, 376–382.
go back to reference Vallone, R. P., Ross, L., & Lepper, M. R. (1985). The hostile media phenomenon: Biased perceptions and perceptions of media bias in coverage of the Beirut massacre. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49, 577–585.PubMed Vallone, R. P., Ross, L., & Lepper, M. R. (1985). The hostile media phenomenon: Biased perceptions and perceptions of media bias in coverage of the Beirut massacre. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49, 577–585.PubMed
go back to reference Verplanken, B., & Pieters, R. G. M. (1988). Individual differences in the reverse of hindsight bias: I never thought something like Chernobyl would happen. Did I? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1, 131–147. Verplanken, B., & Pieters, R. G. M. (1988). Individual differences in the reverse of hindsight bias: I never thought something like Chernobyl would happen. Did I? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1, 131–147.
go back to reference Viégas, F. B., Wattenberg, M., & Dave, K. (2004). Studying cooperation and conflict between authors with history flow visualizations. In Proceedings of the SIGCHI conference on human factors in computing systems, New York: ACM Press. Viégas, F. B., Wattenberg, M., & Dave, K. (2004). Studying cooperation and conflict between authors with history flow visualizations. In Proceedings of the SIGCHI conference on human factors in computing systems, New York: ACM Press.
go back to reference Viégas, F. B., Wattenberg, M., Kriss, J., & van Ham, F. (2007). Talk before you type: Coordination in Wikipedia. In Proceedings of the 40th annual Hawaii international conference on system sciences (HICSS’07). Washington, DC: IEEE. Viégas, F. B., Wattenberg, M., Kriss, J., & van Ham, F. (2007). Talk before you type: Coordination in Wikipedia. In Proceedings of the 40th annual Hawaii international conference on system sciences (HICSS’07). Washington, DC: IEEE.
go back to reference Vosoughi, S., Roy, D., & Aral, S. (2018). The spread of true and false news online. Science, 359(6380), 1146–1151.PubMed Vosoughi, S., Roy, D., & Aral, S. (2018). The spread of true and false news online. Science, 359(6380), 1146–1151.PubMed
go back to reference Vinokur, A., & Burnstein, E. (1978). Depolarization of attitudes in groups. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, 872–885. Vinokur, A., & Burnstein, E. (1978). Depolarization of attitudes in groups. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, 872–885.
Metagegevens
Titel
Wikipedia outperforms individuals when it comes to hindsight bias
Auteurs
Aileen Oeberst
Ina von der Beck
Ulrike Cress
Steffen Nestler
Publicatiedatum
20-03-2019
Uitgeverij
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Gepubliceerd in
Psychological Research / Uitgave 6/2020
Print ISSN: 0340-0727
Elektronisch ISSN: 1430-2772
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00426-019-01165-7

Andere artikelen Uitgave 6/2020

Psychological Research 6/2020 Naar de uitgave