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01-08-2019

Urban building demolitions, firearm violence and drug crime

Auteurs: Jonathan Jay, Luke W. Miratrix, Charles C. Branas, Marc A. Zimmerman, David Hemenway

Gepubliceerd in: Journal of Behavioral Medicine | Uitgave 4/2019

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Abstract

Although multiple interventions to remediate physical blight have been found to reduce urban firearm violence, there is limited evidence for demolishing vacant buildings as a violence reduction strategy. Starting in 2014, Detroit, MI launched a large-scale program that demolished over 10,000 buildings in its first 3 years. We analyzed the pre-post effects of this program on fatal and nonfatal firearm assaults and illegal drug violations at the U.S. Census block group level, using propensity score matching and negative binomial regression. Receiving over 5 demolitions was associated with a 11% reduction in firearm assaults, relative to comparable control locations, 95% CI [7%, 15%], p = 0.01. The program was associated with larger reductions in firearm assaults for the locations receiving moderate numbers of demolitions (between 6 and 12) than for locations receiving high numbers of demolitions (13 and over). No effects were observed for illegal drug violations and no evidence of spatial crime displacement was detected. These findings suggest that vacant building demolitions may affect gun violence.
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1
We used a negative binomial model to model outcome Yit, the number of crimes at unit i at time t, as a function of the unit fixed effect ai, the time fixed effect bt, and a constant treatment effect δ. Letting Dit refer to i’s treatment status at time t we have (including the log link for the negative binomial):
$$\log E\left[ { Y_{it } } \right] = a_{i} + b_{t} + \delta D_{it} + \varepsilon_{it}$$
We used a negative binomial model to allow for overdispersion of the Y due to unobserved heterogeneity. The δ term is the average effect of treatment on the treated.
 
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Metagegevens
Titel
Urban building demolitions, firearm violence and drug crime
Auteurs
Jonathan Jay
Luke W. Miratrix
Charles C. Branas
Marc A. Zimmerman
David Hemenway
Publicatiedatum
01-08-2019
Uitgeverij
Springer US
Gepubliceerd in
Journal of Behavioral Medicine / Uitgave 4/2019
Print ISSN: 0160-7715
Elektronisch ISSN: 1573-3521
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10865-019-00031-6