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Netherlands Heart Journal

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01-06-2011 | Original Article

Predicting 30-day mortality of aortic valve replacement by the AVR score

Auteurs: B. M. Swinkels, F. E. E. Vermeulen, J. C. Kelder, W. J. van Boven, H. W. M. Plokker, J. M. ten Berg

Gepubliceerd in: Netherlands Heart Journal | Uitgave 6/2011

Abstract

Objectives

The objective of this study is to develop a simple risk score to predict 30-day mortality of aortic valve replacement (AVR).

Methods

In a development set of 673 consecutive patients who underwent AVR between 1990 and 1993, four independent predictors for 30-day mortality were identified: body mass index (BMI) ≥30, BMI <20, previous coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and recent myocardial infarction. Based on these predictors, a 30-day mortality risk score—the AVR score—was developed. The AVR score was validated on a validation set of 673 consecutive patients who underwent AVR almost two decennia later in the same hospital.

Results

Thirty-day mortality in the development set was ≤2% in the absence of any predictor (class I, low risk), 2–5% in the solitary presence of BMI ≥30 (class II, mild risk), 5–15% in the solitary presence of previous CABG or recent myocardial infarction (class III, moderate risk), and >15% in the solitary presence of BMI <20, or any combination of BMI ≥30, previous CABG or recent myocardial infarction (class IV, high risk). The AVR score correctly predicted 30-day mortality in the validation set: observed 30-day mortality in the validation set was 2.3% in 487 class I patients, 4.4% in 137 class II patients, 13.3% in 30 class III patients and 15.8% in 19 class IV patients.

Conclusions

The AVR score is a simple risk score validated to predict 30-day mortality of AVR.

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Titel: Predicting 30-day mortality of aortic valve replacement by the AVR score
Auteurs: B. M. Swinkels
F. E. E. Vermeulen
J. C. Kelder
W. J. van Boven
H. W. M. Plokker
J. M. ten Berg
Publicatiedatum: 01-06-2011
Uitgeverij: Bohn Stafleu van Loghum
Gepubliceerd in: Netherlands Heart Journal / Uitgave 6/2011
Print ISSN: 1568-5888
Elektronisch ISSN: 1876-6250
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12471-011-0103-7

Bohn Stafleu van Loghum

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Abstract

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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