Pre-Intervention Predictors of Meeting a 12-Month Walking Goal in Aging Latino/a Adults: A Signal Detection Analysis Approach

To identify pre-intervention predictors of meeting a 12-month walking goal among generally healthy, insufficiently active midlife and older Latino/a adults ≥ 50 years enrolled in a 12-month cluster-randomized physical activity (PA) effectiveness trial. Midlife and older adult participants (N = 245) from the Computerized Physical Activity Support for Seniors trial were randomly assigned to a human peer or virtual advisor. Signal detection analysis (SDA) was used to identify combinations of the 41 baseline sociodemographic, behavioral, clinical, and psychosocial variables, along with the intervention arm (human peer vs. virtual advisor), that formed subgroups that varied in how likely they were to achieve the ≥ 150 min per week walking goal at the 12-month endpoint using the validated Community Healthy Activities Model Program for Seniors (CHAMPS) questionnaire. Mean (SD) age was 62.3 (8.4) years, and 78.8% were female. Overall, 49.8% of the sample met the walking goal. SDA identified eight subgroups, and intervention arm was not a key factor. Among participants in smaller households (< 3 people), the best predictors of meeting the walking goal were high acculturation to U.S. (English) media and a lower average resting systolic blood pressure. Among participants in larger households (≥ 3 people), the best predictors of meeting the walking goal were lower levels of sedentary behavior and a lower average resting heart rate. We found that household composition, acculturation level, sedentary behavior and pre-intervention walking behavior, in addition to multiple clinical markers successfully differentiated subgroups that varied in their success of meeting the 12-month walking goal. Results underscore the importance of exploring subgroups to inform the development of customized, precision exercise interventions to enhance PA among insufficiently active older Latino/a adults.