Abstract
Recent events show a significant increase in the number of disasters with natural and/or technological causes, which could have potentially serious consequences for critical infrastructures. Were these infrastructures to fail or be destroyed, the resulting cascade effect (chain of accidents) could lead to catastrophic damage and affect not only the plants, but also people, the environment and the economy. This rise in the number of disasters over the years is due to industrial and human activity as well as society’s sensitivity to major events (hazards). The construction of industrial complexes brings with it stocks of hazardous substances, increased transport infrastructure (road, railways, shipping and pipelines), a rise in population and its concentration, malicious behavior and human error. This paper presents a methodology for carrying out risk assessments on critical infrastructure through the analysis of cascade effects. The proposed methodology can be used to provide critical infrastructures with greater protection and to limit/mitigate the extent of the damage caused by their failure. The paper ends with a conclusion and as series of proposal for improving such an analysis.
References
Abdolhamidzadeh, B., T. Abbasi, D. Rashtchian and S. A. Abbasi (2010) “A New Method for Assessing Domino Effect in Chemical Process Industry,” Journal of Hazardous Materials, 182(1–3):416–426.10.1016/j.jhazmat.2010.06.049Search in Google Scholar
Abdolhamidzadeh, B., T. Abbasi, D. Rashtchian and S. A. Abbasi (2011) “Domino Effect in Process-Industry Accidents – An Inventory of Past Events and Identification of Some Patterns,” Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 24(5):575–593.10.1016/j.jlp.2010.06.013Search in Google Scholar
Birregah, B., A. Muller and E. Châtelet (2011) “Interdependency-based Approach of Complex Events in Critical Infrastructure under Crisis: A First Step toward a Global Framework.” In: (C. Soares, ed.) Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management. London: CRC Press, Taylor & Francis, pp. 149–155.10.1201/b11433-25Search in Google Scholar
Campedel, M., V. Cozzani, E. Crausmann and A. M. Cruz Naranjo (2008) “Analysis of Natech Accidents Recorded in Major Accident Databases.” In: Proceedings of PSAM9 International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, IAPSAM – Int. Association for Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, Hong Kong, China, May 18–23, pp. 1–8.Search in Google Scholar
Carafano, J. J. (2011) The Great Eastern Japan Earthquake: Assessing Disaster Response and Lessons for the U.S. Special Report #94. Heritage Foundation. Available at: http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/05/the-great-eastern-japan-earthquake-assessing-disaster-response-and-lessons-for-the-us.Search in Google Scholar
Chen, Z. W. and H. Mark (2010) “Impact Analysis of Natural Disasters Using Interrelation of Infrastructure and Associated Industries,” Journal of Shanghai University (English ed.), 14(6):424–429.10.1007/s11741-010-0672-1Search in Google Scholar
Clini, F., R. M. Darbra and J. Casal (2010) “Historical Analysis of Accidents Involving Domino Effect,” Chemical Engineering, 19:335–340. Available at: http://www.aidic.it/CISAP4/webpapers/40Clini.pdf.Search in Google Scholar
Cruz, A., L. Steinberg, A. Vetero Arellano, J. Nordvik and F. Pisano (2004) State of the Art in Natech Risk Management (NATECH: Natural Hazard Triggering a Technological Disaster). Joint Research Center, European Commission. Available at: http://www.unisdr.org/files/2631_FinalNatechStateofthe20Artcorrected.pdf.Search in Google Scholar
Cruz, A., L. Steinberg and A. Vetere-Arellano (2006) “Emerging Issues for Natech Disaster Risk Management in Europe,” Journal of Risk Research, 9(5):483–501.10.1080/13669870600717657Search in Google Scholar
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) (2006) National Infrastructure Protection Plan. Washington, D.C. Available at: http://www.naruc.org/publications/nipp_plan4.pdf.Search in Google Scholar
European Commission (2005) Green Paper on a European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection, COM(2005) 576.Search in Google Scholar
Kadri, F. and E. Châtelet (2013) “Domino Effect Analysis and Assessment of Industrial Sites: A Review of Methodologies and Software Tools,” International Journal of Computers and Distributed Systems, 2(3):1–10.Search in Google Scholar
Kadri, F., E. Châtelet and G. Chen (2011a) Method for Quantitative Assessment of Domino Effect Caused by Heat Radiation in Industrial Sites. Presented at the International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA4), Limassol, Cyprus.Search in Google Scholar
Kadri, F., E. Châtelet and G. Chen (2011b) “Method for Quantitative Assessment of Domino Effect Caused by Overpressure.” In: (C. Soares, ed.) Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management, London: CRC Press, Taylor & Francis, pp. 1360–1367.10.1201/b11433-192Search in Google Scholar
Kadri, F., P. Lallement and E. Châtelet (2012) The Quantitative Risk Assessment of Domino Effect on Industrial Plants Using Colored Stochastic Petri Nets. Presented at PSAM11 and ESREL Conference, Helsinki, Finland.Search in Google Scholar
Kadri, F., E. Châtelet and G. Chen (2013) “Method for Quantitative Assessment of the Domino Effect in Industrial Sites,” Process Safety & Environmental Protection: Transactions of the Institution of Chemical Engineers Part B, 91(6):452–462.10.1016/j.psep.2012.10.010Search in Google Scholar
Kervern, G. Y. (1994) Latest Advances in Cindynics. Paris: Economica.Search in Google Scholar
Khan, F. (2001) “Use Maximum-Credible Accident Scenarios for Realistic and Reliable Risk Assessment,” Chemical Engineering Progress, 97(11):56–64.Search in Google Scholar
Khan, F. (2002) “A Criterion for Developing Credible Accident Scenarios for Risk Assessment,” Journal of Loss Prevention in Process Industries, 15(6):467–475.10.1016/S0950-4230(02)00050-5Search in Google Scholar
Krausmann, E. and A. M. Cruz (2013) “Impact of the 11 March 2011, Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami on the Chemical Industry,” Natural Hazards, 67(2):811–828.10.1007/s11069-013-0607-0Search in Google Scholar
Krausmann, E. and F. Mushtaq (2008) “A Qualitative Natech Damage Scale for the Impact of Floods on Selected Industrial Facilities,” Natural Hazards, 46(2):179–197.10.1007/s11069-007-9203-5Search in Google Scholar
Krausmann, E., A. M. Cruz and B. Affeltranger (2010) “The Impact of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake on Industrial Facilities,” Journal of Loss Prevention in Process Industries, 23(2):242–248.10.1016/j.jlp.2009.10.004Search in Google Scholar
Little, R. G. (2002a) Controlling Cascading Failure: A Systems Approach to Addressing Multiple Hazards. Presented to the Natural Disasters Roundtable. Washington, D.C.: National Academies. Available at: http://www.irgc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/R.-Little_Risk-of-Aging-Infrastructure_revision-Nov2012.pdf.Search in Google Scholar
Little, R. G. (2002b) “Controlling Cascading Failure: Understanding the Vulnerabilities of Interconnected Infrastructures,” Journal of Urban Technology, 9(1):109–123.10.1080/106307302317379855Search in Google Scholar
Milazzo, M. F., G. Ancione, A. Basco, D. G. Lister, E. Salzano and G. Maschio (2013) “Potential Loading Damage to Industrial Storage Tanks Due to Volcanic Ash Fallout,” Natural Hazards, 66(2):939–953.10.1007/s11069-012-0518-5Search in Google Scholar
Perrin, L., F. Muñoz-Giraldo, O. Dufaud and A. Laurent (2012) “Normative Barriers Improvement through the MADS/MOSAR Methodology,” Safety Science, 50(7):1502–1512.10.1016/j.ssci.2012.02.002Search in Google Scholar
Rahman, S. (2005) “Impact of Natural Disasters on Critical Infrastructures.” In The 1st Bangladesh Earthquake Symposium. Dhaka, Bangladesh, December 14–15.Search in Google Scholar
Rinaldi, S. M., J. P. Peerenboom and T. K. Kelly (2001) “Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies,” IEEE Control Systems Magazine, 21:11–25. Available at: http://doczine.com/bigdata/2/1373760246_55ea7b29f4/cii-rinaldi.pdf.10.1109/37.969131Search in Google Scholar
Robert, B. and L. Morabito (2008) “The Operational Tools for Managing Physical Interdependencies among Critical Infrastructures,” International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 4(4):353.10.1504/IJCIS.2008.020156Search in Google Scholar
Salzano, E., A. Basco, V. Busini, V. Cozzani, E. Marzo, R. Rota and G. Spadoni (2013) “Public Awareness Promoting New or Emerging Risks: Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards (NaTech),” Journal of Risk Research, 16:469–485.10.1080/13669877.2012.729529Search in Google Scholar
Showalter, P. S. and M. F. Myers (1994) “Natural Disasters in the United States as Release Agents of Oil, Chemicals, or Radiological Materials between 1980–1989: Analysis and Recommendations,” Risk Analysis, 14(2):169–182.10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00042.xSearch in Google Scholar
Steinberg, L. J., H. Sengul and A. M. Cruz (2008) “Natech Risk and Management: An Assessment of the State of the Art,” Natural Hazards, 46(2):143–152.10.1007/s11069-007-9205-3Search in Google Scholar
Thivel, P.-X., Y. Bultel and F. Delpech (2008) “Risk Analysis of a Biomass Combustion Process Using MOSAR and FMEA Methods,” Journal of Hazardous Materials, 151(1):221–231.10.1016/j.jhazmat.2007.05.072Search in Google Scholar
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs–Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (OCHA-ROAP) (2011) Asia Pacific: Humanitarian Funding Update 1st Quarter 2011: Counting the Cost of Disasters in Asia Pacific. Available at: http://reliefweb.int/report/australia/asia-pacific-humanitarian-funding-update-1st-quarter-2011.Search in Google Scholar
©2014 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin/Boston
