Abstract
New research in the field of developmental criminology has led researchers to reconceptualize desistance as a behavioral process that unfolds over the life course. This approach puts more emphasis on the pathways by which people reach the state of non-offending, and less emphasis on the state of non-offending itself. This reconceptualization has implications for how we measure desistance in longi-tudinal data. In this paper, we suggest that the traditional measurement approach is inconsistent with this view, and we present an alternative measurement approach based on the premises of developmental criminology. Although not perfect, we argue that the dynamic measure better describes the key elements of the process of desistance. Both approaches are implemented using data from the Rochester Youth Development Study, a longitudinal study of youthful offenders. We demon-strate that the two approaches identify different people as desistors. Moreover, we argue that the dynamic definition of desistance has more promise for providing insight into the changes that are the behavioral focus of the desistance process.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
REFERENCES
Ayers, C. D., Williams, J. H., Hawkins, J. D., Peterson, P. L., Catalano, R. F., and Abbott, R. D. (1999). Assessing correlates of onset, escalation, deescalation, and desistance of delinquent behavior. J. Quant. Criminol. 15: 277–306.
Barnett, A., Blumstein, A., and Farrington, D. P. (1989). A prospective test of a criminal career model. Criminology 27: 373–385.
Baskin, D. R., and Sommers, I. B. (1997). Casualties of Community Disorder: Women's Careers in Violent Crime, Westview Press, Boulder, CO.
Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., and Farrington, D. P. (1988). Criminal career research: Its value for criminology. Criminology 26: 1–35.
Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., Roth, J. A., and Visher, C. A. (1986). Criminal Careers and “Career Criminals”, National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
Brame, R., Bushway, S. D., and Paternoster, R. (In press). Examining the prevalence of criminal desistence. Criminology.
Bushway, S. D., Piquero, A., Mazerolle, P., Broidy, L., and Cauffman, E. (2001). An empirical framework for studying desistance as a process. Criminology 39: 491–515.
Cicchetti, D., and Rogosch, F. A. (1996). Equifinality and multifinality in developmental psychopathology. Dev. Psychopathol. 8: 597–600.
D'Unger, A., Land, K. C., McCall, P. L., and Nagin, D. S. (1998). How many latent classes of delinquent/criminal careers? Results from mixed Poisson regression analyses. Am. J. Sociol. 103: 1593–1630.
Elliott, D. S., Huizinga, D., and Menard, S. (1989). Multiple Problem Youth: Delinquency, Substance Use and Mental Health, Springer-Verlag, New York, NY.
Fagan, J. (1989). Cessation of family violence: Deterrence and dissuasion. In Ohlin, L., and Tonry, M. (eds.), Family Violence: Crime and Justice: An Annual Review of Research, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, pp. 377–425.
Farrington, D. P. (1986). Age and Crime. In Tonry, M., and Morris, N. (eds.), Crime and Justice, Vol. 7, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, pp. 29–90.
Farrington, D. P., and Hawkins, J. D. (1991). Predicting participation, early onset, and later persistence in officially recorded offending. Crim. Behav. Ment. Health 1: 1–33.
Gottfredson, M., and Hirschi, T. (1988). Science, public policy, and the career paradigm. Criminology 26: 37–55.
Hagan, J., and Palloni, A. (1988). Crimes as social events in the life course: Reconceiving a criminological controversy. Criminology 26: 87–100.
Huizinga, D., Esbensen, F. A., and Weiher, A. W. (1994). Examining developmental trajectories in delinquency using accelerated longitudinal designs. In Weitekamp, E. G. M., and Kerner, H. (eds.), Cross-national Longitudinal Research on Human Development and Criminal Behavior, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA, pp. 203–216.
Jones, B. L., Nagin, D. S., and Roeder, K. (2001). A SAS Procedure based on mixture models for estimating developmental trajectories. Soc. Meth. Res. 29: 374–393.
Krohn, M. D., and Thornberry, T. P. (1999). Retention of minority populations in panel studies of drug use. Drugs and Society 14: 185–207.
Land, K. C., McCall, P. L., and Nagin, D. S. (1996). A comparison of Poisson, negative binomial and semiparametric mixed Poisson regression models. Sociol. Meth. Res. 24: 387–442.
Land, K. C., and Nagin, D. S. (1996). Micro-models of criminal careers: A synthesis of the criminal careers and life course approaches via semiparametric mixed Poisson regression models, with empirical applications. J. Quant. Criminol. 12: 167–191.
Laub, J., Nagin, D. S., and Sampson, R. (1998). Good marriages and trajectories of change in criminal offending. Am. Sociol. Rev. 63: 225–238.
Laub, J., and Sampson, R. (2001). Understanding desistance from crime. In Tonry, M. (ed.), Crime and Justice: A Review of Research, Vol. 28, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, pp. 1–69.
LeBlanc, M., and Loeber, R. (1998). Developmental criminology updated. In Tonry, M. (ed.), Crime and Justice: Review of Research, Vol. 23, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, pp. 115–198.
Loeber, R., and LeBlanc, M. (1990). Toward a developmental criminology. In Tonry, M. and Morris, N. (eds.), Crime and Justice: Review of Research, Vol. 12, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, pp. 375–473.
Loeber, R., Stouthamer-Loeber, M., Van Kammen, W. B., and Farrington, D. P. (1991). Initiation, escalation, and desistance in juvenile offending and their correlates. J. Crim. Law and Criminol. 82: 36–82.
McLachlan, G. J., and Peel, D. (2000). Finite Mixture Models, Wiley, New York.
Moffitt, T. (1993). “Life-course persistent” and “adolescent-limited” antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy. Psychol. Rev. 100: 674–701.
Nagin, D. S. (1999). Analyzing developmental trajectories: A semiparametric, group-based approach. Psychol. Meth. 4: 139–157.
Nagin, D. S., Farrington, D. P., and Moffitt, T. (1995). Life course trajectories of different types of offenders. Criminology 33: 111–139.
Nagin, D. S., and Land, K. C. (1993). Age, criminal careers, and population heterogeneity: Specification and estimation of a nonparametric, mixed Poisson model. Criminology 31: 327–362.
Nagin, D. S., and Tremblay, R. E. (1999). Trajectories of boys' physical aggression, opposition, and hyperactivity on the path to physically violent and nonviolent juvenile delinquency. Child Devel. 70: 1181–1196.
Osgood, D. W., and Rowe, D. C. (1994). Bridging criminal careers, theory, and policy through latent variable models of individual offending. Criminology 32: 517–554.
Patterson, G. R., Capaldi, D., and Bank, L. (1991). An early starter model for predicting delinquency. In Pepler, D. J. and Rubin, R. H. (eds.), The Development and Treatment of Childhood Aggression, Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ, pp. 139–168.
Roeder, K., Lynch, K., and Nagin, D. S. (1999). Modeling uncertainty in latent class membership: A case study in criminology. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 94: 766–776.
Shover, N. (1996). Great Pretenders: Pursuits and Careers of Persistent Thieves, Westview Press, Boulder, CO.
Thornberry, T. P. (ed.) (1997). Developmental Theories of Crime and Delinquency, Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, NJ.
Thornberry, T. P., Bjerregaard, B. E., and Miles, W. C. (1993). The consequences of respondent attrition in panel studies: A simulation based on the Rochester Youth Development Study. J. Quant. Criminol. 9: 127–158.
Uggen, C., and Kruttschnitt, C. (1998). Crime in the breaking: Gender differences in desistance. Law Soc. Rev. 32: 339–366.
Uggen, C., and Piliavin, I. (1998). Asymmetrical causation and criminal desistance. J. Crim. Law Criminol. 88: 1399–1422.
Warr, M. (1998). Life-course transitions and desistance from crime. Criminology 36: 183–215.
Wolfgang, M. E., Thornberry, T. P., and Figlio, R. (1987). From Boy to Man, from Delinquency to Crime, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bushway, S.D., Thornberry, T.P. & Krohn, M.D. Desistance as a Developmental Process: A Comparison of Static and Dynamic Approaches. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 19, 129–153 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1023050103707
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1023050103707