Original Article
Dependence of the minimal clinically important improvement on the baseline value is a consequence of floor and ceiling effects and not different expectations by patients

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2013.10.025Get rights and content

Abstract

Objective

Estimates of minimal clinically important improvements (MCIIs) are larger among patients with higher values at baseline, suggesting that these patients require larger changes to appreciate improvements. We examined if baseline dependency of MCIIs was associated with specific patients across three measures, or was owing to floor and ceiling effects.

Study Design and Setting

We prospectively examined 250 outpatients with active rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We used an anchor-based approach to estimate MCIIs for three measures of RA activity (patient global assessment, swollen joint count, and walking time). We examined if the same patients constituted the baseline subgroups with high MCIIs across measures.

Results

The MCIIs were greater for those with higher baseline values of all three measures. At the ceiling, there was little opportunity to improve, and judgments were unrelated to measured changes. At midrange, improvements were balanced by worsenings, including some judged as improvements. At the floor, improvements were not similarly balanced. Patients in subgroups with high MCII for patient global assessment were not also predominantly in subgroups with high MCII for the swollen joint count or walking time, and vice versa.

Conclusion

Variation in MCII by baseline values is because of floor and ceiling effects rather than expectations of particular patients.

Introduction

What is new?

  • This is the first study to test if patients who comprise the subgroup with a high minimal clinically important improvements (MCIIs) on one measure of disease activity also constitute subgroups with high MCIIs for other measures of disease activity.

  • Comparing the concordance of patient responses across measures, MCII in the high baseline subgroups segregate with the measure rather than with particular patients.

  • Variation in the MCII with the baseline value is attributable to differences in maximum possible changes and opportunities for misjudgments at different baseline values, and was similar for three measures of rheumatoid arthritis activity.

  • A single MCII can be estimated for all patients provided they meet a minimum level of disease activity or severity.

Patient-reported outcomes have become recognized as central components in the assessment of health, and are now routinely included as endpoints in clinical trials and observational studies. Although the comparison of responses between treatment groups provides an estimate of the effects of treatment, this comparison does not provide information on whether the improvement was substantial or trivial. Full interpretation requires knowing what degree of change in a measure represents an important or clinically meaningful change, and whether a higher proportion of patients in one group met this threshold [1]. In addition to facilitating the interpretation of trial results, the minimal clinically important improvement (MCII) of a study's primary outcome is important in study design as a guide to sample size estimation. Although the MCII has most often been assessed for patient-reported outcomes, similar issues pertain to measures that are not patient reported.

Of several approaches used to estimate the MCII, anchor-based methods are the most direct and frequently use the patient's explicit judgment of improvement as an external standard [2]. Most often, investigators intend to determine a single MCII for a given measure. However, the MCII may vary with the analytic approach or the nature of patients assessed [3], [4]. Several studies have examined potential sources of variation in the MCII, including for example whether the MCII was similar for men and women, as an indication of whether group-specific MCIIs were needed [5]. A notable observation has been that when patients are stratified by their value on the measure at study baseline, estimates of the MCII are substantially larger for subgroups of patients with high baseline values (or values indicating more severe disease) than for subgroups with midrange or low values (or values indicating less severe disease). Dependence of the MCII on the baseline value was observed in each of the 27 studies we identified that examined the baseline value as a source of variation in the MCII [5], [6], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [12], [13], [14], [15], [16], [17], [18], [19], [20], [21], [22], [23], [24], [25], [26], [27], [28], [29], [30], [31]. This dependence was irrespective of the nature of the outcome, which ranged from pain scales and functional indices to urinary symptom scales, and irrespective of the format of the measure, suggesting that it may be axiomatic.

This association has commonly been interpreted to indicate that patients with more severe symptoms require a larger improvement to appreciate that they are better than those with less severe symptoms. Although this interpretation is logical, the universality of this association across studies, conditions, and measures suggests that the dependency of the MCII on the baseline value may be a consequence of the measurement process, rather than a truism of how patients perceive health changes. Most measures are bounded, and improvements, by definition, are unidirectional. Floor and ceiling effects have been invoked as possibly contributing to this observation, but this possibility has not been explored in detail [8], [19], [32]. In this study, we examined whether floor and ceiling effects might account for the baseline dependency of the MCII in a study of patients with active rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We examined three different measures of RA activity, namely the patient global assessment, a widely used patient-reported measure of overall arthritis activity; the swollen joint count, a physician-derived measure; and walking time, a performance measure. In addition to testing if the MCII varied with the baseline value of each measure, we examined if the same subset of patients was identified as having a high MCII for each RA activity measure. We hypothesized that if baseline dependency of the MCII was owing to the “requirements” or judgments of a particular subgroup of patients, the same subgroup should be identified by each measure of RA activity. In contrast, if each measure identified different sets of patients as having a high MCII, the baseline dependency of the MCII would relate to the measure rather than to the requirements or expectations of particular patients.

Section snippets

Subjects

We enrolled subjects with RA in a prospective longitudinal study of changes in RA activity with the treatment. The goal of the study was to determine the sensitivity to change and MCII for commonly used measures of RA activity. Eligible subjects were aged 18 years or older, met classification criteria for RA [33], and had active RA with at least six tender joints; and in the judgment of their rheumatologist required an escalation in treatment with either disease-modifying medications or

Subjects

We studied 250 subjects (78% women; mean (±standard deviation) age 51.1 ± 13.7 years; median duration of RA 6.4 years). At baseline, the mean patient global assessment was 55.6 ± 25.2, with a range from 3 to 100. The median swollen joint count was 15, with a range from 2 to 46. The mean walking time was 12.6 ± 5.9 s, with a range from 6 to 51 s. Therefore, although subjects fulfilled the inclusion criteria for active arthritis, there was a wide range of ratings on these three measures of RA activity. A

Discussion

Consistent with previous literature on other measures and conditions, estimates of the MCII for the three measures of RA activity we studied varied with the baseline value of the measure [5], [6], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [12], [13], [14], [15], [16], [17], [18], [19], [20], [21], [22], [23], [24], [25], [26], [27], [28], [29], [30], [31]. Subgroups with more severe values on each measure at study entry had a higher MCII than those with less severe values at study entry. This finding was

Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the Intramural Research Program, National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, National Institutes of Health, and U.S. Public Health Service grant AR45177.

References (36)

Cited by (22)

  • Minimal clinically important difference in patients who underwent decompression alone for lumbar degenerative disease

    2022, Spine Journal
    Citation Excerpt :

    The AUC for MCID estimation in the present study was mostly >0.70, which is considered fair, except that it was 0.69 for NRS (LEN); thus, our patient sample seems to be acceptable for applying the ROC method. However, the “mean change” method might be more robust when a ceiling effect is present, as it only assesses patients who experienced a minimum amount of improvement [7,26]. Indeed, in the present study, 24% of the “very satisfied” patients reached the upper limit of the ODI and 52% reached the upper limit of the EQ-5D-3L score, whereas only 1.5% and 6.2% of the patients who were “somewhat satisfied,” whose values were used for calculating the MCID with the “mean change” method, reached the upper limits of the ODI and EQ-5D-3L scores, respectively.

  • Minimal important changes and differences were estimated for Oxford hip and knee scores following primary and revision arthroplasty

    2022, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
    Citation Excerpt :

    This may allow better tailoring of MIC estimates to individual patients or groups that do not have average characteristics. It is important to note that predictive-modelling techniques remain vulnerable to problems with floor and ceiling effects within an instrument and new methods are being developed to account for these [31,32]. For any study where a PROM is chosen to measure the outcome, it is important to ensure that the instrument has been validated for the construct of interest.

  • Estimates of minimal clinically important improvments vary with the responsiveness of the sample

    2022, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
    Citation Excerpt :

    Studies of anchor-based MCIDs have generally not found estimates to vary by sex, age, or other characteristics, among patients with the same condition. [12–18] In contrast, MCIDs based on absolute changes in scores (rather than relative changes) have been consistently found to vary with the baseline level of symptoms or degree of abnormality in the measure, with higher MCIDs among more severely affected patients. [12–19] We have previously shown that the association of MCIDs with baseline values is due to ceiling and floor effects. [19]

View all citing articles on Scopus

Financial disclosures: None.

View full text