Original article
A Case-Control Study of Risk and Protective Factors for Incarceration Among Urban Youth

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jadohealth.2013.05.008Get rights and content

Abstract

Purpose

Each day in the United States, approximately 100,000 youth are under correctional supervision. The purpose of this study is to examine the early risk and protective factors for incarceration using a high-risk sample of urban youth.

Methods

Data were obtained from 2,165 (54 who were incarcerated) youth who participated in Project Northland Chicago. Participants were matched exactly on gender, race/ethnicity, and aggressive behavior in sixth grade. Bivariate and multivariate conditional logistic regression analyses were used to examine the risk and protective factors present at sixth grade that increased the odds of incarceration at 12th grade.

Results

The early risk factors for incarceration were age (odds ratio [OR] = 2.51; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.71–3.69), having been sent to detention (1–3 times: OR = 2.24; 95% CI 1.15–4.37; 4+ times: OR = 3.49; 95% CI 1.40–8.72), and the number of hours spent participating in a sport (OR = 1.11; 95% CI 1.03–1.20). Substance use was not significantly related to incarceration after adjusting for other behavioral and contextual risk factors.

Conclusions

General problem behaviors (nonaggressive) strongly predict incarceration among at-risk youth. Implications for prevention programs are discussed.

Section snippets

Methodology

Data were obtained from youth in sixth and 12th grades who participated in Project Northland Chicago (PNC), a group-randomized alcohol prevention intervention implemented in middle schools located in Chicago, IL [24], [25]. A long-term follow-up was completed in 2009 when participants were in 12th grade, and all adolescents who participated at baseline and the 12th-grade follow-up (or were coded as incarcerated at 12th grade) were eligible for inclusion. Students were able to complete the

Results

A description of the risk and protective factors for sample characteristics in sixth grade grouped by 12th-grade incarceration status is detailed in Table 1. Youth who were incarcerated at 12th grade were more likely to have used alcohol in the past year (32.1% vs. 18.6%, p < .001) and past month in sixth grade (15.1% vs. 8.8%, p < .05), have higher alcohol-related behaviors and intentions in sixth grade (mean 6.5 for incarcerated youth, 5.6 for nonincarcerated, p < .001), and to have used

Discussion

The purpose of this study was to examine how risk and protective factors in early adolescence (sixth grade) influence incarceration in 12th grade. Several key findings emerged from this effort. Interestingly, the robust early risk factors for later incarceration identified in a multivariate context were age, having been sent to in-school detention, and the number of hours spent participating in a sport. Furthermore, these significant relationships were observed despite matching the at-risk

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