Effects of early prevention programs on adult criminal offending: A meta-analysis

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpr.2010.12.003Get rights and content

Abstract

This meta-analysis investigated the long term effects of prevention programs conducted during early and middle childhood on criminal offending during adulthood. The analyses included 3611 participants in 9 programs. The effect size for adult criminal offending was significant, but small in magnitude (OR = 1.26; 95% CI = 1.06–1.50, p = .011). The effects of the programs on positive outcomes (academic attainment and involvement in productive activity, such as being engaged in school or work) were somewhat larger and more consistent than effects on crime (OR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.20–1.55, p < .001). Several participant and program characteristics moderated the effectiveness of (early) prevention. Children who were more at-risk and those from a lower SES benefited more. Shorter, but more intensive programs, and programs that focus on social and behavioral skills, rather than on academic skills or family support, tend to produce larger effects. Taken together, these results indicate that early prevention programs can help put children on a more positive developmental trajectory that is maintained into adulthood, but there is still no convincing evidence that they can prevent adult crime. Implications of the findings for research, policy and clinical practice are discussed.

Research Highlights

► Early prevention programs have only modest effect on crime in adulthood. ► Effects on positive outcomes are larger and more consistent than effects on crime. ► Children who were more at-risk and those from a lower SES benefit more. ► Shorter, intensive programs with focus on behavioral skills produce larger effects.

Section snippets

Selection of studies

The primary search method involved inspection of the electronic databases Web of Science, PsycINFO, ERIC, PubMed, Sociological abstracts, Criminal Justice Abstracts, OPENSIGLE, and USA Government publications Office, Monthly Catalog. The literature search included all studies published before February 2010. The following key words were used for searching in varying combinations: “delinquency,” “antisocial behavior,” “offending,” “crime,” “violence,” “conduct problems,” “conduct disorder,”

Literature search

Our initial database search resulted in 3376 hits. After removing duplicates, 2370 articles remained. By searching bibliographies and websites of prevention programs an additional 30 articles were found. Titles of these references were read and 592 potentially relevant articles were selected for subsequently reading the abstract. Based upon their abstracts, 93 articles were selected for which the full text article was retrieved. After carefully checking these articles against eligibility

Discussion

The central question addressed in the present meta-analysis was whether (early) childhood programs can prevent involvement in crime in adulthood. Despite the commonly held belief that early interventions produce long-lasting beneficial effects, only a small number of empirical studies actually tested long-term effects of such programs. This meta-analysis encompasses studies that examined only nine programs, but these studies are, to the best of our knowledge, all the available evidence

Conclusion

Taken together, results of this meta-analysis indicate that early prevention programs can help put children on a more positive developmental trajectory, but there is still no convincing evidence that they can prevent adult crime. It should be kept in mind that this conclusion is based on a limited number of studies. The studies included in the present meta-analysis are truly unique in their effort to follow the participants for such a long period of time. The follow-up assessments of the

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