A longitudinal examination of predictors of delinquency: An analysis of data from the Mobile Youth Survey

Abstract

This study analyzed the relationships among adolescent delinquency, self-worth, peer influence, and family cohesion (i.e., maternal and paternal warmth). The longitudinal analysis identified how these relationships develop and change through adolescence. Using data from the Mobile Youth Survey, a 14-year longitudinal study of high-poverty, primarily Black American youths living in Alabama (N = 5400), delinquency, self-worth, and peer influence were analyzed in linear growth models. Results from these three linear growth models are presented. Findings include a significant increase in delinquency over time for the adolescents in the study and significantly lower rates of delinquency overall for females than males. Delinquency was also found to have negative relationships to both parental warmth and self-worth, with higher levels leading to decreased delinquency. Peer influence was found to have a gender effect, with males exhibiting steady rates, while females exhibit an increase in peer influence over time. Furthermore, maternal warmth and self-worth are also found to increase the rates of peer influence as well as significantly increasing self-worth.

Introduction

Despite decades of research and intervention, juvenile delinquency remains a social problem in modern American culture. Studies have shown that deviant behavior in adolescence leads to an increased likelihood of adult criminal behavior (Haynie, 2001, Patterson et al., 1989). The literature abounds with empirical support for several causal factors. Although early research was often limited by its cross-sectional nature and attention to few variables, more recent research has been more complex, with studies based on longitudinal data and examining variables such as gender, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Still, such research is in its relative infancy and additional research is needed to increase knowledge regarding the various pathways through which certain juveniles become classified as delinquent.

Although relatively little research has investigated predictors of delinquency among youths living in extreme poverty, some factors, such as inconsistent or low levels of parental monitoring and association with deviant peers have emerged as promising for further investigation for these youths as well as youths living in other situations (Brody et al., 2006; Hoeve et al., 2009, Murphy et al., 2012, O'Donnell et al., 2012, Simons and Burt, 2011). In contrast, the literature on the causes and consequences of delinquent behavior among Black American adolescents is extensive. For example, peer relationships (O'Donnell et al., 2012), family structure and relationships (Farrington, Jolliffe, Loeber, Stouthamer-Loeber, & Kalb, 2001), and self-image (McMahon & Watts, 2002) have been cited as factors associated with deviant behavior in Black American adolescents, although few models have been developed to explore the strength of these associations.

It is likely that age, gender, and ethnicity influence how various factors, both independently and interactively, influence delinquent behaviors among adolescents (Daigle et al., 2007, Ge et al., 2002, O'Donnell et al., 2012, Whaley et al., 2010). Association with delinquent peers, for example, has been found to be a better predictor of delinquency for males than for females (Piquero, Gover, MacDonald, & Piquero, 2005). Across gender and ethnicity, the effects of relationships with parents and problem behaviors have been shown to be partially mediated by school success and time spent with friends (Pilgrim, Schulenberg, O'Malley, Bachman, & Johnston, 2006). In addition, gender differences in rates of juvenile delinquency and in factors that predict juvenile delinquency have been reported (Fagan and Wright, 2012, Jennings et al., 2009, Neumann et al., 2010, Snyder et al., 2008).

In this study, we use longitudinal data from the Mobile Youth Survey (Bolland, 2004) to explore the effects of self-worth, peer influence, and family cohesion on delinquency in a sample of black adolescent males and females living in extreme poverty. By focusing on strengths of associations rather than just existence of associations, the study fills a gap in the literature.

Studies of delinquency often have been framed in one or more of three criminological theories: differential association/social learning; social control/social bonding, and general strain (Cullen, Wright, & Blevins, 2006; Lilly, Cullen, & Ball, 2007). Research that is framed within a particular theory, however, focuses on the variables important to that theory; such research may, therefore, fail to examine the influence of other variables important to the phenomena of interest (Daigle et al., 2007). We have avoided this limitation by selecting variables that have been demonstrated to be important, rather than by attempting to test one or more theories. We call upon these theories; however, to explain the findings, building a framework that links individual choice and environmental influence.