A longitudinal examination of predictors of delinquency: An analysis of data from the Mobile Youth Survey
Highlights
► Examined the relationships among delinquency, self-worth, peers, and family cohesion. ► Modeled three linear growth models with the outcome of delinquency. ► Results indicate a significant increase in delinquency over time.
Introduction
Despite decades of research and intervention, juvenile delinquency remains a social problem in modern American culture. Studies have shown that deviant behavior in adolescence leads to an increased likelihood of adult criminal behavior (Haynie, 2001, Patterson et al., 1989). The literature abounds with empirical support for several causal factors. Although early research was often limited by its cross-sectional nature and attention to few variables, more recent research has been more complex, with studies based on longitudinal data and examining variables such as gender, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Still, such research is in its relative infancy and additional research is needed to increase knowledge regarding the various pathways through which certain juveniles become classified as delinquent.
Although relatively little research has investigated predictors of delinquency among youths living in extreme poverty, some factors, such as inconsistent or low levels of parental monitoring and association with deviant peers have emerged as promising for further investigation for these youths as well as youths living in other situations (Brody et al., 2006; Hoeve et al., 2009, Murphy et al., 2012, O'Donnell et al., 2012, Simons and Burt, 2011). In contrast, the literature on the causes and consequences of delinquent behavior among Black American adolescents is extensive. For example, peer relationships (O'Donnell et al., 2012), family structure and relationships (Farrington, Jolliffe, Loeber, Stouthamer-Loeber, & Kalb, 2001), and self-image (McMahon & Watts, 2002) have been cited as factors associated with deviant behavior in Black American adolescents, although few models have been developed to explore the strength of these associations.
It is likely that age, gender, and ethnicity influence how various factors, both independently and interactively, influence delinquent behaviors among adolescents (Daigle et al., 2007, Ge et al., 2002, O'Donnell et al., 2012, Whaley et al., 2010). Association with delinquent peers, for example, has been found to be a better predictor of delinquency for males than for females (Piquero, Gover, MacDonald, & Piquero, 2005). Across gender and ethnicity, the effects of relationships with parents and problem behaviors have been shown to be partially mediated by school success and time spent with friends (Pilgrim, Schulenberg, O'Malley, Bachman, & Johnston, 2006). In addition, gender differences in rates of juvenile delinquency and in factors that predict juvenile delinquency have been reported (Fagan and Wright, 2012, Jennings et al., 2009, Neumann et al., 2010, Snyder et al., 2008).
In this study, we use longitudinal data from the Mobile Youth Survey (Bolland, 2004) to explore the effects of self-worth, peer influence, and family cohesion on delinquency in a sample of black adolescent males and females living in extreme poverty. By focusing on strengths of associations rather than just existence of associations, the study fills a gap in the literature.
Studies of delinquency often have been framed in one or more of three criminological theories: differential association/social learning; social control/social bonding, and general strain (Cullen, Wright, & Blevins, 2006; Lilly, Cullen, & Ball, 2007). Research that is framed within a particular theory, however, focuses on the variables important to that theory; such research may, therefore, fail to examine the influence of other variables important to the phenomena of interest (Daigle et al., 2007). We have avoided this limitation by selecting variables that have been demonstrated to be important, rather than by attempting to test one or more theories. We call upon these theories; however, to explain the findings, building a framework that links individual choice and environmental influence.
Section snippets
Literature review
There is a consensus that deviant behavior in adolescence leads to an increased likelihood of adult criminal behavior (Haynie, 2001, Patterson et al., 1989). There are fewer consensuses; however, regarding causal links to adolescent negative behavior. Although the nature of a youth's peer relationships (Clark, 2007, Haynie and Osgood, 2005), social and family environments and relationships (Church, Wharton, & Taylor, 2009), and self-image (Donnellan et al., 2005, Giordano, 2003, Ostrowsky, 2010
Sample
The Mobile Youth Survey (MYS) is a 14 year longitudinal study of adolescents living in low-income neighborhoods in the Alabama port city of Mobile, as well the neighboring town of Prichard (Bolland, 2004). The current analysis includes data from 5400 adolescents.
The MYS data were collected annually between 1998 and 2011 from a total of 10,694 youths aged 9–19. In the current study, participants were included if they had at least two data points. Additionally, data points at ages 9, 10, and 19
Model 1: delinquency
A linear growth model was estimated with delinquency of the individual as the dependent variable, peer influence on delinquency, self-worth, warmth toward the mother, and warmth toward the father as time-varying covariates, and gender as a time-invariant covariate. Non-significant terms were removed from the final model. Estimates for the unconditional growth model and the final conditional model are shown in Table 1.
The unconditional growth model demonstrates a significant increase in
Discussion
In this study, we investigated several factors that have been shown to be associated with adolescent delinquency. Using 13 waves of data from over 5000 adolescents aged 11–18; we estimated growth models for three outcomes: delinquency, peer influence on delinquency, and self-worth. Family cohesion (i.e., maternal and paternal warmth) and gender were covariates in each model. Overall, results from this study are consistent with previous research findings that among adolescents who exhibit
Limitations and strengths
Several limitations of the study must be considered. First, while the current study set out to analyze relationships proposed by Church et al. (2009) in a longitudinal data set, the sample size was too small and the number of parameters was too large to estimate a full longitudinal structural model. As an alternative, each of the endogenous variables was analyzed in a separate linear growth model. This limits our results to the direct effects of the variables, as opposed to capturing all the
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