Adolescent Runaway Behavior in Specialized Foster Care

Existing predictive risk models in child welfare tend to focus on child protection and prevention of youth’s entry to the child welfare system. Less explored is the potential contribution of predictive risk models to improve the care and meet the placement needs of youth in the child welfare system. This study demonstrated how an empirical model predicted youth’s risk for running away from child welfare placement to inform preventive interventions for youth in care. We used administrative data on youth’s demographic, child welfare, and clinical characteristics to develop a Cox proportional-hazards model. The model predicted time-to-first runaway among 8,255 legal custody spells of 12- to 17-years-olds in the care of the public child welfare agency of one large Midwestern state over an eight-year period. We validated the model internally using 200 bootstrap resamples from the development sample, and externally using a more recent, but smaller sample of 1,836 legal custody spells for youth whose information was not used to develop the model. Internal validation indicated stable predictor estimates, significant predictors that corroborate with relevant empirical literature on runaway, and strong discriminative ability and prediction accuracy (bias-adjusted c-statistic = 0.78). Through external validation, we demonstrated one preventive application of the model by predicting the risk of running away within the first 90 days of a legal custody spell. The model maintained the expected relationships between model-based predicted risks of runaway and actual runaway, as evidenced by accuracy metrics of precision and recall. We conclude by describing how child welfare agencies can apply predictive risk models such as ours to identify youth’s placement needs and estimate system capacity to prevent runaway.

Little is known regarding the prevalence and context of missingness (i.e., being reported as a missing person) among children in out-of-home (OOH) care.

The present research examines the relationship between missingness and OOH care placements as well as predictors and case contexts of children missing from OOH care.

Point-in-time count data of reported missing persons in Nebraska and administrative records on children's OOH placements are used. Bivariate significance tests examine group differences; case contexts are explored through content analysis of OOH case reviews.

About 30 % of Nebraska's missing children are in OOH care. Bivariate tests show that children missing from OOH care are older and are more likely to be Black and less likely to have their race listed as “unknown” than children missing from their families of origin. Children in OOH who are missing are also more likely to be in group care, on probation, and have greater placement instability compared to children in OOH care who are not missing. Case contexts of missingness include unmet substance use and mental health challenges, experiences with violence and victimization, and few bonds to school.

Screening and interventions for high-need children in OOH care and their caregivers are necessary to prevent children from going missing from placements.

Among the more than 400,000 children in foster care, there is a small group who will run away from care and face increased risks of negative outcomes. Previous studies on the predictors of running away from care use limited samples or outdated data.

The present study replicates and extends prior research by presenting an updated analysis of predictors of running away from foster care as well as 10-year trends in the prevalence and predictors of running from care.

This study uses the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS) data to assess the runaway status of 597,911 children who were involved in foster care in 2019. Longitudinal trend analyses utilize AFCARS data from 2010 to 2019.

Using chi-square/t-tests and binary logistic regression analyses, this study investigates individual- and case-level predictors of running away from foster care programs.

Findings show that girls (OR = 1.29, p < .001), African American children (OR = 1.89, p < .001), and older children (OR = 1.61, p < .001) are at increased risk of running away from foster care. Removal reasons such as child substance abuse (OR = 1.65, p < .001), abandonment (OR = 1.38, p < .001), and child behavioral problems (OR = 1.31, p < .001) are also associated with an increased risk. Analysis of 10-year trends shows a steady decline in running from care: 1.40% in 2010 to 0.98% in 2019. The profile of risk factors is stable overall, with a few notable exceptions.

The percent of children running from foster care is at a 10-year low. Prevention and intervention efforts regarding running from care must focus on the needs of African American and Hispanic children, especially girls, as well as children with substance use or behavior problems. Given that programs rarely have prospective information regarding why children leave care and the negative consequences of labeling children as “runaways,” shifting language to “missing from care” should be considered.

Running away from foster care is fairly common, but there is no body of research that explores explicitly the question of whether Black and Hispanic youth run away from foster care at rates that are different from those for White youth. Using data from 17 states, I measured the probability of running away from foster care for Black, Hispanic, and White youth. This approach yields an unambiguous measure of disparity based on the odds ratio, a standard measure for summarizing group differences. In addition to individual differences in rates of running away (e.g., age, gender, race/ethnicity), I was also interested in knowing whether context matters. Context was measured at the county-level using urbanicity, social disadvantage, and a system-level measure of congregate care utilization. I also included whether the state where the county was located had policies that require an assessment of running-away risk. Older youth, girls, and youth with a history of placement in congregate care all have higher rates of running away. Further, Black and Hispanic youth are more likely to run away than White youth, but the magnitude of those differences depends on context. In particular, as measured, disparity in counties where I detected a tendency to use congregate care as a county-level attribute, disparity was greater. Among the implications, better reporting of running away by the federal government is highlighted. Regarding contextual effects and the dynamics of congregate utilization, the results point toward system effects as an important avenue for future research.

Domestic minor human trafficking (HT) is a growing social justice concern, particularly among youth in the child welfare system. This paper uses administrative data to describe the characteristics and experiences of a population of youth in the child welfare system considered to be at particularly high risk of victimization: youth who have run away from foster care. Analyses are based on nearly 37,000 youth with at least one foster care placement in Florida at age 10 or older between 2011 and 2017. We examine the characteristics of youth with and without at least one foster care runaway episode, and the characteristics and experiences of youth with and without one or more HT allegations while on runaway status. Of the youth with at least one foster placement at age 10 or older, approximately 19% (n = 7039) had at least one foster care runaway episode, and of these youth, 7% (n = 542) had an HT allegation while on runaway status. Youth with HT allegations (compared to those without) during a foster care runaway episode were more likely to: be female, experience prior physical, psychological and sexual abuse, run from care at a younger age, experience more foster care placements since entry into the child welfare system, and experience more foster care runaway episodes. For most (70%) youth with a HT allegation during runaway status, the first identified trafficking allegation occurred during a foster care runaway episode. Most (67%) youth did not have another HT allegation up to a year later. Implications for research and child welfare policy and programs are discussed.

There were approximately 306,000 reports of missing persons in the UK from 2012 to 2013, 64% involved children. Repeat missing incidents account for approximately 38% of reported missing incidences. Within their research Biehal et al. (2003) identified that 70% of missing children had voluntarily left their home and the majority of these were considered to have 'run away'. Research suggests that there is heavy demand on public services in responding to children that are regularly reported missing.

The purpose of this study was to explore data recorded in respect of children reported missing as a result of running away. The main objective of this study was to develop a set of risk factors to predict repeat missing incidences using a logistic regression method.

This study explored the characteristics of 523 children who were reported missing to Gwent (Wales) Police as a result of running away.

Using data collected by the Gwent Missing Children's Team in Wales, over a one-year period, this study compared two groups of children: 275 (53%) who were reported missing once ('low risk') and 248 (47%) who were reported more than once ('high risk').

Results indicated that five significant risk factors identified by logistic regression could distinguish outcome in 73% of cases. The five risk factors were; looked after children, substance use, suspected sexual exploitation, known to Youth Offending Services and a history of abuse/neglect.

These risk factors could potentially be used in Gwent to guide intervention strategies, with those children identified as 'high risk' of repeat missing incidents requiring more comprehensive intervention and support.