Chest
Clinical InvestigationsSARCOIDOSISPredicting Mortality in Patients With Sarcoidosis Awaiting Lung Transplantation
Section snippets
Subjects and End Points
The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) maintains a registry of all patients listed for organ transplantation in the United States. We reviewed this registry and identified all persons with a diagnosis of sarcoidosis who were on the OLT list between January 1995 and December 2000, regardless of initial listing date. The diagnosis of sarcoidosis was based on the reports of the referring transplant centers. Patients listed for any form of possible OLT (single lung, bilateral lung, or
Results
During the study period, 12,228 patients in the United States were listed with the UNOS for OLT. Of these, 427 cases were for sarcoidosis, and data were available for 405 persons (94.8%). The mortality rate while awaiting OLT was 27.4%.
As shown in Table 1, neither age nor gender differed between those who survived and those who died while on the transplant list. For example, the mean age of survivors was 45.6 ± 8.7 years, as compared to 44.7 ± 8.1 year for nonsurvivors (p = 0.47). Similarly,
Discussion
This effort at developing a mortality prediction model for subjects with sarcoidosis demonstrates that three variables routinely available to clinicians at time of listing correlate with the probability of death. Two of these factors, race and need for supplemental oxygen, can be determined easily. Nonetheless, the predictive model had only fair validity. In other words, data available at one static time point have power at predicting future outcomes (which may be as long a 2 years away) but
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