The effect of imagining an event on expectations for the event: An interpretation in terms of the availability heuristic

doi:10.1016/0022-1031(78)90062-8

Journal of Experimental Social Psychology

Volume 14, Issue 1, January 1978, Pages 88-96

https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1031(78)90062-8 Get rights and content

Abstract

Previous studies have indicated that explaining a hypothetical event makes the event seem more likely through the creation of causal connections. However, such effects could arise through the use of the availability heuristic; that is, subjective likelihood is increased by an event becoming easier to imagine. Two experiments were designed to demonstrate this principle. In Experiment 1, subjects asked to imagine Jimmy Carter winning the presidential election (prior to the election) predicted that he was more likely to win than subjects asked to imagine Gerald Ford winning. In Experiment 2, subjects asked to imagine a good college football season for the previous championship team were more likely to predict a major bowl bid than subjects asked to imagine a bad season, although the effect did not appear in predictions of the season record. In both studies, subjects who were also asked to explain the imaginary event were no different from subjects who only imagined. Several other attributional distortions are interpreted in terms of the availability heuristic.

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^☆: The ideas for this paper emerged in a graduate seminar conducted by David Greene and me during our study of several papers by Lee Ross and his colleagues.

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The effect of imagining an event on expectations for the event: An interpretation in terms of the availability heuristic☆

Abstract

Cognitive Psychology

Cognitive Psychology

Journal of Experimental Social Psychology

Cognitive Psychology

Script processing in attitude formation and decision making

A Bayesian analysis of attribution processes

Psychological Bulletin

Motivational determinants of risk-taking behavior

Psychological Review

Memory for internally generated stimuli

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory

The theory of decision making

Psychological Bulletin