The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences

doi:10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6

Cognitive Psychology

Volume 17, Issue 3, July 1985, Pages 295-314

https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6 Get rights and content

Abstract

We investigate the origin and the validity of common beliefs regarding “the hot hand” and “streak shooting” in the game of basketball. Basketball players and fans alike tend to believe that a player's chance of hitting a shot are greater following a hit than following a miss on the previous shot. However, detailed analyses of the shooting records of the Philadelphia 76ers provided no evidence for a positive correlation between the outcomes of successive shots. The same conclusions emerged from free-throw records of the Boston Celtics, and from a controlled shooting experiment with the men and women of Cornell's varsity teams. The outcomes of previous shots influenced Cornell players' predictions but not their performance. The belief in the hot hand and the “detection” of streaks in random sequences is attributed to a general misconception of chance according to which even short random sequences are thought to be highly representative of their generating process.

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^☆: This research was supported in part by a faculty research grant from the College of Arts and Sciences at Cornell University to the first author and by Grant NR 197-058 from the U.S. Office of Naval Research to the third author.

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The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences☆

Abstract

Cognitive Psychology

The perception of randomness

Lay foibles and expert fables in judgments about risk

Biased evaluation and persistence in gambling

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology