Skip to main content
Log in

The Value of a QALY: Individual Willingness to Pay for Health Gains Under Risk

  • Original Research Article
  • Published:
PharmacoEconomics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Background

There is an increased interest in the monetary value of a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Past studies commonly derived willingness to pay (WTP) for certain future QALY gains. However, obtaining valid WTP per QALY estimates proved to be difficult.

Objective

We conducted a contingent valuation study and estimated the individual WTP per QALY under risk. We demonstrate the impact of probability weighting on WTP per QALY estimates in the Netherlands.

Results

Our estimates of the value of a QALY are in the range of €80,000–110,000 when the weighting correction was applied, and €250,500 without correction. The validity of these estimates, applying probability weighting, appears to be good.

Conclusions

Given the reasonable support for their validity and practical meaningfulness, the estimates derived while correcting for probability weighting may provide valuable input for the debate on the consumption value of health. While decision makers should not apply these estimates without further consideration, since strictly individual valuations may not carry all relevant information and values for societal decision-making, the current estimates may provide a good and informed basis for further discussion and study of this important topic.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Gravelle H, Brouwer WBF, Niessen LW, Postma MJ, Rutten FFH. Discounting in economic evaluations: stepping forward towards optimal decision rules. Health Econ. 2007;16:307–17.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  2. Claxton K, Walker S, Palmer S, Sculpher M. Appropriate perspectives for health care decisions. Centre for Health Economics University of York. CHE Research Paper 54; 2010.

  3. Bleichrodt H, Quiggin J. Life-cycle preferences over consumption and health: when is cost-effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost-benefit analysis? J Health Econ. 1999;18:681–708.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  4. Gyrd-Hansen D. Willingness to pay for a QALY: theoretical and methodological issues. Pharmacoeconomics. 2005;23:423–32.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  5. Pinto Prades JL, Loomes G, Brey R. Trying to estimate a monetary value for the QALY. J Health Econ. 2009;28:553–62.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  6. Gyrd-Hansen D, Kjær T. Disentangling WTP per QALY data: different analytical approaches different answers. Health Econ. 2012;21(3):222–37.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  7. Brouwer WBF, van Exel NJA, Baker R, Donaldson C. The new myth: the social value of the QALY. Pharmacoeconomics. 2008;26:1–4.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  8. Bobinac A, van Exel NJA, Rutten FFH, Brouwer WBF. Get more pay more? An elaborate test of construct validity of willingness to pay per QALY estimates obtained through contingent valuation. J Health Econ. 2012;31:158–68.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  9. King JT Jr, Tsevat J, Lave JR, Roberts MS. Willingness to pay for a quality-adjusted life year: implications for societal health care resource allocation. Med Decis Mak. 2005;25:667–77.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Gyrd-Hansen D. Willingness to pay for a QALY. Health Econ. 2003;12:1049–60.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  11. Bobinac A, van Exel NJA, Rutten FFH, Brouwer WBF. Willingness to pay for a QALY: the individual perspective. Value Health. 2010;13:1046–55.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  12. Shiroiwa T, Sung Y, Fukuda T, et al. International survey on willingness-to-pay WTP for one additional QALY gained: what is the threshold of cost effectiveness. Health Econ. 2010;19:422–37.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  13. Olsen JA, Donaldson C. Helicopters hearts and hips: using willingness to pay to set priorities for public sector health care programmes. Soc Sci Med. 1998;46:1–12.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  14. Donaldson C, Baker R, Mason H, Jones-Lee M, Lancsar E, Wildman J, Bateman I, Loomes G, Robinson A, Sugden R, Pinto Prades JL, Ryan M, Shackley P, Smith R. The social value of a QALY: raising the bar or barring the raise? BMC Health Serv Res. 2011;11:8.

    Article  PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  15. Weinstein M. How much are Americans willing to pay for a quality-adjusted life year? Med Care. 2008;46:343–5.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  16. Starmer C, Sugden R. Probability and juxtaposition effects: an experimental investigation of the common ratio effect. J Risk Uncertain. 1989;2:159–78.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Tversky AD, Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. J Risk Uncertain. 1992;1992(5):297–323.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Bleichrodt H, Eeckhoudt L. Willingness to pay for reductions in health risk when probabilities are distorted. Health Econ. 2006;15:211–4.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  19. Corso P, Hammitt J, Graham J. Valuing mortality-risk reduction: using visual aids to improve the validity of contingent valuation. J Risk Uncertain. 2001;23:165–84.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Dubourg WR, Jones-Lee MW, Loomes G. Imprecise preferences and survey design in contingent valuation. Economica. 1997;64:681–702.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Donaldson C, Shackley P, Abdalla M, Miedzybrodzka Z. Willingness to pay for antenatal carrier screening for cystic fibrosis. Health Econ. 1995;4:439–52.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  22. Kind P, Dolan P, Gudex C, Williams A. Variations in population health status: results from a United Kingdom national questionnaire survey. BMJ. 1998;316:736–41.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  23. Lamers LM, McDonnell J, Stalmeier PF. The Dutch tariff: results and arguments for an effective design for national EQ-5D valuation studies. Health Econ. 2006;15:1121–32.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  24. Craig BM, Busschbach JJ, Salomon JA. Modeling ranking, time trade-off, and visual analog scale values for EQ-5D health states: a review and comparison of methods. Med Care. 2009;47(6):634–41.

    Article  PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  25. Krabbe PF, Tromp N, Ruers TJ, van Riel PL. Are patients’ judgments of health status really different from the general population? Health Qual Life Outcomes. 2011;9:31.

    Article  PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  26. Camerer CF. Prospect theory in the wild: evidence from the field. In: Kahneman D, Tversky A, editors. Choices, values, and frames. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2000. p. 288–300.

  27. Starmer C. Developments in non-expected utility theory: the hunt for a descriptive theory of choice under risk. J Econ Lit. 2000;38:332–82.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Camerer CF. Individual decision making. In: Kagel JH, Roth AE, editors. Handbook of experimental economics. Princeton: Princeton University Press; 1999. p. 587–703.

  29. Prelec D. The probability weighting function. Econometrica. 1998;66:497–528.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Shaw WD, Woodward RT. Why environmental and resource economists should care about non-expected utility models. Resour Energy Econ. 2008;30:66–89.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Gonzalez R, Wu G. On the form of the probability weighting function. Cogn Psychol. 1999;38:129–66.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  32. Bleichrodt H, Pinto Prades JL. A parameter-free elicitation of the probability weighting function in medical decision analysis. Manag Sci. 2000;46:1485–96.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Abdellaoui M. Parameter-free elicitation of utility and probability weighting functions. Manag Sci. 2000;46:1497–512.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Bradford DF. Benefit–cost analysis and demand curves for public goods. Kyklos. 1972;23:775–91.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Smith RD. Sensitivity to scale in contingent valuation: the importance of the budget constraint. J Health Econ. 2005;24:519–29.

    Google Scholar 

  36. Olsen JA, Donaldson C, Pereira J. The insensitivity of ‘willingness-to-pay’ to the size of the good: new evidence for health care. J Econ Psychol. 2004;25:445–60.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Ryan M. A comparison of stated preference methods for estimating monetary values. Health Econ. 2004;13:291–6.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  38. Fisher AC. The conceptual underpinnings of the contingent valuation method. In: Bjornstad DJ, Kahn JR, editors. The contingent valuation of environmental resources: methodological issues and research needs. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar; 1996. p. 19–37.

  39. Bateman IJ, Brouwer R. Consistency and construction in stated WTP for health risk reductions. A novel scope sensitivity test. Resour Energy Econ. 2006;28:199–214.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Hammitt JK, Graham JD. Willingness to pay for health protection: inadequate sensitivity to probability? J Risk Uncertain. 1999;18:32–62.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. CBS. http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/cijfers/kerncijfers/default.htm. Accessed 21 March 2012.

  42. Blumenschein K, Johannesson M, Yokoyama KK, Freeman PR. Hypothetical versus real willingness to pay in the health care sector: results from a field experiment. J Health Econ. 2001;20:441–57.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  43. Flores N, Carson RT. The relationship between the income elasticities of demand and willingness to pay. J Environ Econ Manag. 1997;33:287–97.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. RVZ-Council for Public Health and Health Care. Sensible and sustainable care. Zoetermeer Netherlands: Council for Public Health and Health Care; 2006 (in Dutch).

  45. Mason H, Jones-Lee M, Donaldson C. Modelling the monetary value of a QALY: a new approach based on UK data. Health Econ. 2009;18:933–50.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  46. Harless DW, Camerer CF. The predictive utility of generalized expected utility theories. Econometrica. 1994;62:1251–89.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Van Houtven G, Powers J, Jessup A, Yang J. Valuing avoided morbidity using meta-regression analysis: what can health status measures and QALYs tell us about WTP? Health Econ. 2006;15:775–95.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  48. Jones-Lee MW, Loomes G, Philips P. Valuing the prevention of non-fatal road injuries: contingent valuation versus standard gamble. Oxf Econ Pap. 1995;47:676–95.

    Google Scholar 

  49. Brouwer WBF, Culyer AJ, Van Exel NJA, Rutten FFH. Welfarism vs. extra-welfarism. J Health Econ. 2008;27:325–38.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  50. Johannesson M, Blomquist GC, Blumenschein K, Johansson P, Liljas B, O’Conor RM. Calibrating hypothetical willingness to pay responses. J Risk Uncertain. 1999;18:21–32.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Bateman IJ, Brouwer R, Georgiou S, Hanley N, Machado F, Mourato S, Saunders C. A “natural experiment” approach to contingent valuation of private and public UV health risk reduction strategies in low and high risk countries. Environ Resour Econ. 2005;31:47–72.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. Shogren JF, Crocker TD. Risk, self-protection, and ex ante economic value. J Environ Econ Manag. 1991;20:1–15.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. Konishi Y, Kenji A. A framework for estimating willingness-to-pay to avoid endogenous environmental risks. Resour Energy Econ. 2011;33:130–54.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Viscusi WK, Evans WN. Estimation of revealed probabilities and utility functions for product safety decisions. Rev Econ Stat. 1998;80:28–33.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. Riddel M, Shaw WD. A theoretically consistent empirical model of non-expected utility: an application to nuclear waste transportation. J Risk Uncertain. 2006;32:131–50.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. OECD statistics. http://stats.oecd.org/WBOS/index.aspx.

  57. Holland J, van Exel NJA, Schut FT, Brouwer WBF. Some pain, no gain. Experiences with the no-claim rebate in the Dutch health care system. Health Econ Policy Law. 2009;4:405–24.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  58. Bobinac A, van Exel NJA, Rutten FFH, Brouwer WBF. Inquiry into the relationship between the equity weights and the value of a QALY. Value Health. 2012;15(8):1119–26.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study is part of a larger project investigating the broader societal benefits of healthcare, which was financially supported by Astra-Zeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen-Cilag, Merck and Pfizer BV. The researchers were free in study design, data collection, analysis and interpretation, as well as writing and submitting the manuscript for publication. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors.

Author’s contributions

Ana Bobinac: design of the study, data collection, analysis and interpretation of results, drafting of the article, final approval of the article, critical revision of the article for important intellectual content.

Job van Exel: design of the study, analysis and interpretation of results, critical revision of the article for important intellectual content.

Frans F.H. Rutten: critical revision of the article for important intellectual content.

Werner B.F. Brouwer: design of the study, interpretation of results, critical revision of the article for important intellectual content.

Conflict of interest

None.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ana Bobinac.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary Appendix (DOCX 72 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Bobinac, A., van Exel, J., Rutten, F.F.H. et al. The Value of a QALY: Individual Willingness to Pay for Health Gains Under Risk. PharmacoEconomics 32, 75–86 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40273-013-0110-1

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40273-013-0110-1

Keywords

Navigation