Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Paths to Positive Development: a Model of Outcomes in the New Zealand Youth Transitions Study

  • Published:
Child Indicators Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study examined predictors of positive developmental outcomes, including: life satisfaction; optimism; educational achievement; civic engagement; and positive peer influence; in a sample of young people comprised of a study group (n = 593) facing significant challenges and a comparison group (n = 778) who were progressing more normatively. The study modelled the demographic, risk, and resource predictors of positive outcomes across both groups, and compared the fit of the model across groups using integrative data analysis techniques. Results suggested that positive outcomes were predicted by: resilience; ethnicity; peer problems; depression age; gender; relationship status; and parental monitoring. Although the study group faced significantly (p < .0001) greater levels of adversity than the comparison group, the fitted model was shown to be equivalent across groups, suggesting that general models of positive developmental outcomes can be applied to vulnerable youth. The model also suggests that the pathways to positive developmental outcomes are complex being influenced by a diverse range of factors and that of these factors, resilience appears to be the most important.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ackerman, B. P., & Brown, E. D. (2006). Income poverty, poverty co-factors, and the adjustment of children in elementary school. Advances in Child Development and Behavior, 34, 91–129.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ackerman, B. P., D’Eramo, K. S., Umylny, L., Schultz, D., & Izard, C. E. (2001). Family structure and the externalizing behavior of children from economically disadvantaged families. Journal of Family Psychology, 15(2), 288–300.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alan Guttmacher Institute. (2001). Can more progress be made? Teenage sexual and reproductive behavior in developed countries. New York: The Alan Guttmacher Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alfonso, J. P., Huedo-Medina, T. B., & Espada, J. P. (2009). Risk factors predictors of the pattern of substance use during the adolescence. Anales De Psicologia, 25(2), 330–338.

    Google Scholar 

  • Allen, M. P. (1997). Understanding regression analysis. New York: Plenum Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Amato, P. R. (Ed.). (2006). Marital discord, divorce, and children’s well-being: Results from a 20-year longitudinal study of two generations. New York: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arnett, J. (2000). Emerging adulthood: a theory of development from late teens to early twenties. American Psychologist, 55(5), 469–480.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashby, J., & Schoon, I. (2010). The role of aspirations, ambition and gender in predicting adult social status and earnings. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 77(3), 350–360.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Auerbach, R., Bigda-Peyton, J., Eberhart, N., Webb, C., & Ho, M. (2010). Conceptualizing the prospective relationship between social support, stress, and depressive symptoms among adolescents. Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, 39, 478–487.

    Google Scholar 

  • Beale Spencer, M., Harpalani, V., Cassidy, E., Jacobs, C., Donde, S., Goss, T., et al. (2006). Understanding vulnerability and resilience from a normative developmental perspective: Implications for racially and ethnically diverse youth. In D. Cicchetti & D. Cohen (Eds.), Developmental psychopathology volume :1 Theory and method (pp. 627–672). Hoboken: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Becker, B., & Tuppat, J. (2013). Unequal distribution of educational outcomes between social categories: ‘Children at risk’ from a sociological perspective. Child Indicators Research, 6(4), 737–751.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bergen, H. A., Martin, G., Roeger, L., & Allison, S. (2005). Perceived academic performance and alcohol, tobacco and marijuana use: longitudinal relationships in young community adolescents. Addictive Behaviors, 30(8), 1563–1573.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berzin, S. (2010). Vulnerability in the transition to adulthood: defining risk based on youth profiles. Children and Youth Services Review, 32, 487–495.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Betancourt, T. S., Borisovea, I. I., Williams, T. P., Brennan, R. T., Whitfield, T. H., de la Soudiere, M., et al. (2010). Sierra Leone’s former child soldiers: a follow-up study of psychosocial adjustment and community reintegration. Child Development, 81(4), 1076–1094.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Botticello, A. (2009). A multilevel analysis of gender differences in psychological distress over time. Journal of Research on Adolescence, 19(2), 217–247.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brody, G., Ge, X., Conger, R., Gibbons, F., Murry, V., & Gerrard, M., et al. (2001). The influence of neighbourhood disadvantage, collective socialization, and parenting on African American children’s affiliation with deviant peers. Child Development (72).

  • Capaldi, D. M., & Kim, H. K. (2014). Comorbidity of depression and conduct disorder. In C. Steven Richards & M. W. O’Hara (Eds.), The oxford handbook of depression comorbidity. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Catalano, R. F., Berglund, M. L., Ryan, J. A. M., Lonczak, H. S., & Hawkins, J. D. (2004). Positive youth development in the United States: research findings on evaluations of positive youth development programs. The Annals of the American Academy. doi:10.1177/0002716203260102.

    Google Scholar 

  • Clark, T., Robinson, E., Crengle, S., Fleming, T., Ameratunga, S., Denny, S., et al. (2011). Risk and protective factors for suicide attempt among indigenous Māori youth in New Zealand: the role of family connection. Journal of Aboriginal Health, 7(1), 16–31.

    Google Scholar 

  • Coley, R., & Chase-Lansdale, P. (1998). Adolescent pregnancy and parenthood: recent evidence and future directions. American Psychologist, 53, 152–166.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cooper, H., & Patall, E. A. (2009). The relative benefits of meta-analysis conducted with individual participant data versus aggregated data. Psychological Methods, 14, 165–176.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cormack, D., & Robson, C. (2010). Classification and output of mult-iple ethnicities: Issues for monitoring Maori Health. Wellington: Te Ropu Rangahau Hauora a Eru Pomare.

    Google Scholar 

  • Costello, E. J., & Maughan, B. (2014). Annual research review: optimal outcomes of child and adolescent mental illness. Child Psychology & Psychiatry, 56(3), 324–341.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Curran, P. J., & Hussong, A. M. (2009). Integrative data analysis: the simultaneous analysis of multiple data sets. Psychological Methods, 14, 81–100.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Neve, E.-J., & Oswald, A. J. (2012). Estimating the influence of life satisfaction and positive affect on later income using sibling fixed effects. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109(49), 19953–19958. doi:10.1073/pnas.1211437109.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diener, E., Emmons, R. A., Larsen, R. J., & Griffin, S. (1985). The satisfaction with life scale. Journal of Personality Assessment, 49(1), 71–75. doi:10.1207/s15327752jpa4901_13.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dohrenwend, B. P. (2000). The role of adversity and stress in psychopathology: some evidence and its implications for theory and research. Journal of Health and Social Behavior, 41(1), 1–19.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Donovan, J. E., & Jessor, R. (1985). Structure of problem behavior in adolescence and young adulthood. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 53(6), 890–904.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fergusson, D. M., & Horwood, L. J. (1997). Early onset cannabis use and psychosocial adjustment in young adults. Addiction, 92(3), 279–296.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fergusson, D., & Horwood, L. (Eds.). (2003). Resilience to childhood adversity: Results of a 21 year study (Resilience and Vulnerability: Adaptation in the Context of Childhood Adversities). New York: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fergusson, D. M., Horwood, L. J., & Lynskey, M. T. (1994). The childhoods of multiple problem adolescents: a 15-year longitudinal study. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 35(6), 1123–1140.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fergusson, D. M., Lynskey, M. T., & Horwood, L. J. (1996). The short-term consequences of early onset cannabis use. Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, 24(4), 499–512.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fergusson, D. M., Boden, J. M., & Horwood, L. J. (2007). Recurrence of major depression in adolescence and young adulthood and later mental health, education, and economic outcomes. British Journal of Psychiatry, 191, 335–342.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fomby, P., & Cherlin, A. J. (2007). Family instability and child well-being. American Sociological Review, 72(2), 181–204.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frønes, I. (2010). Status zero youth in the welfare society: an analysis of young marginalised men in Norway. Child Indicators Research, 3, 313–326.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gibb, S. J., Fergusson, D. M., & Horwood, L. J. (2010). Burden of psychiatric disorder in young adulthood and life outcomes at age 30. British Journal of Psychiatry, 197(2), 122–127.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gifford-Smith, M., Dodge, K. A., Dishion, T. J., & McCord, J. (2005). Peer influence in children and adolescents: crossing the bridge from developmental to intervention acience. Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, 33(3), 255–265.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gilman, S. E., Kawachi, I., Fitzmaurice, G., & Buka, S. (2003). Socio-economic status, family disruption and residential stability in childhood: relation to onset, recurrence and remission of major depression. [Original]. Psychological Medicine, 33(8), 1341–1355.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goodman, R., Meltzer, H., & Bailey, V. (1998). The strengths and difficulties questionnaire: a pilot study on the validity of the self-report version. European Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, 7, 125–130.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grant, B. F., & Dawson, D. A. (1997). Age at onset of alcohol use and its association with DSM-IV alcohol use and dependence: results for the National Longitudinal Alcohol Epidemiologic Survey. Journal of Substance Abuse, 9, 103–110.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hammen, C., Brennan, P. A., Keenan-Miller, D., & Herr, N. R. (2008). Early onset recurrent subtype of adolescent depression: clinical and psychosocial correlates. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 49(4), 433–440.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hammen, C., Brennan, P. A., & Le Brocque, R. (2013). Youth depression and early childrearing: stress generation and intergenerational transmission of depression. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 79(3), 353–363.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hawkins, M. T., Villagonzalo, K.-A., Sanson, A. V., Toumbourou, J. W., Letcher, P., & Olsson, C. A. (2012). Associations between positive development in late adolescence and social, health, and behavioral outcomes in young adulthood. Journal of Adult Development, 19, 88–99.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hektner, J. (1995). When moving up implies moving out: rural adolescent conflict in the transition to adulthood. Journal of Research in Rural Education, 11, 3–14.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hingson, R. W., Heeren, T., & Winter, M. R. (2006). Age at drinking onset and alcohol dependence: age at onset, duration, and severity. Archives of Pediatrics & Adolescent Medicine, 160, 739–746.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Horwood, L. J., Fergusson, D. M., Hayatbakhsh, M. R., Najman, J. M., Coffey, C., Patton, G. C., et al. (2010). Cannabis use and educational achievement: findings from three Australasian cohort studies. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 110, 247–253.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keenan-Miller, D., Hammen, C. L., & Brennan, P. A. (2007). Health outcomes related to early adolescent depression. Journal of Adolescent Health, 41, 256–262.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keyes, M. A., Iacono, W. G., & McGue, M. (2007). Early onset problem behavior, young adult psychopathology, and contextual risk. Twin Research and Human Genetics, 10(1), 45–53.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • LaFromboise, T. D., Hoyt, D. R., Oliver, L., & Whitbeck, L. B. (2006). Family, community and school influences on resilience among American Indian adolescents in the Upper Midwest. Journal of Community Psychology, 34, 193–209.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liebenberg, L., Ungar, M., & Van de Vijver, F. (2011). Validation of the child and youth resilience measure-28 (CYRM-28) among Canadian youth. Research on Social Work Practice. doi:10.1177/1049731511428619.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liebenberg, L., Ungar, M., & Van de Vijver, F. R. R. (2012). Validation of the child and youth resilience measure-28 (CYRM-28) among Canadian youth with complex needs. Research on Social Work Practice, 22(2), 219–226.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marie, D., Fergusson, D. M., & Boden, J. M. (2008). Educational achievement in Maori: the roles of cultural identity and social disadvantage. Australian Journal of Education, 52(2), 183–196.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marie, D., Fergusson, D. M., & Boden, J. M. (2011). Cultural identity and pregnancy/parenthood by age 25: evidence from a New Zealand birth cohort. Social Policy Journal of New Zealand, 37, 19–36.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marie, D., Fergusson, D. M., & Boden, J. M. (2014). Childhood socioeconomic status and ethnic disparities in psychosocial outcomes in New Zealand. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry, 48(7), 672–680. doi:10.1177/0004867414525839.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Masten, A. (2001). Ordinary magic: resilience processes in development. American Psychologist, 56, 227–238.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Masten, A. S., Hubbard, J. J., Gest, S. D., Tellegen, A., Garmezy, N., & Ramirez, M. (1999). Competence in the context of adversity: pathways to resilience and maladaptation from childhood to late adolescence. Development and Psychopathology, 11(1), 143–169.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McLoyd, V., Cauce, A., Takeuchi, D., & Wilson, L. (2000). Marital processes and parental socialization in families of color: a decade review of research. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 62, 1070–1093.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meeus, W. (2011). The study of adolescent identity formation 2000–2010: a review of longitudinal research. Journal of Research on Adolescence, 21(1), 75–94. doi:10.1111/j.1532-7795.2010.00716.x.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Merkaš, M., & Brajša-Žganec, A. (2011). Children with different levels of hope: are there differences in their self-esteem, life satisfaction, social support, and family cohesion? Child Indicators Research, 4(3), 499–514.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Metzler, C., Noell, J., Biglan, A., Ary, D., & Smolkowski, K. (1994). The social context for risky sexual behaviour among adolescents. Journal of Behavioral Medicine, 17, 419–438.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell, L. (2009). Maori and welfare: Te Oranga o te Iwi Maori: A study of Maori economic and social progress. Wellington: New Zealand Business Roundtable.

    Google Scholar 

  • Muthén, L. K., & Muthén, B. O. (1998-2012). Mplus users guide. Seventh Edition. Los Angeles: Muthén & Muthén.

  • Oesterle, S., Hill, K. G., Hawkins, J. D., & Abbott, R. D. (2008). Positive functioning and alcohol-use disorders from adolescence to young adulthood. Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, 69(1), 100–111.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Overbeek, G., Vollebergh, W., Engels, R., & Meeus, W. (2005). Juvenile delinquency as acting out: emotional disturbance mediating the effects of parental attachment and life events. The European Journal of Developmental Psychology, 2(1), 39–46.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Padilla-Walker, L. M., & Bean, R. A. (2009). Negative and positive peer influence: relations to positive and negative behaviors for African American, European American, and Hispanic adolescents. Journal of Adolescence, 32, 323–337.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parker, J. S., & Benson, M. J. (2004). Parent-adolescent relations and adolescent functioning: self-esteem, substance abuse, and delinquency. Adolescence, 39(155), 519–530.

    Google Scholar 

  • Poulin, C., Hand, D., & Boudreau, B. (2005). Validity of a 12-item version of the CES-D used in the National Longitudinal Study of Children and Youth. Chronic Diseases in Canada, 26(2-3), 65–72.

    Google Scholar 

  • Poulton, R., Caspi, A., Milne, B. J., Thomson, W. M., Taylor, A., Sears, M. R., et al. (2002). Association between children’s experience of socioeconomic disadvantage and adult health: a life-course study. Lancet, 360(9346), 1640–1645.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rao, U. (2009). Characteristics, correlates, and outcomes of childhood and adolescent depressive disorders. Dialogues in Clinical Neuroscience, 11(1), 45–62.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rashbrooke, M. (Ed.). (2013). Inequality: A New Zealand crisis. Wellington: Bridget Williams Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Repetti, R. L., Taylor, S. E., & Seeman, T. E. (2002). Risky families: family social environments and the mental and physical health of offspring. Psychological Bulletin, 128(2), 330–366.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rutter, M. (1985). Resilience in the face of adversity: protective factors and resistance to psychiatric disorder. British Journal of Psychiatry, 147, 598–611.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rutter, M. (2000). Resilence reconsidered: Conceptual considerations, empirical findings and policy implications. In J. Shonkoff & S. Meisels (Eds.), Handbook of early intervention (2nd ed., pp. 651–681). New York: Cambridge University Press.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Sackett, P. R., & Yang, H. (2000). Correction for range restriction: An expanded typology. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85, 112–118.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saewyc, E., & Edinburgh, L. (2010). Restoring healthy developmental trajectories for sexually exploited young runaway girls: fostering protective factors and reducing risk behaviors. Journal of Adolescent Health, 46, 180–188.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanders, J., & Munford, R. (2015). The interaction between culture, resilience, risks and outcomes: A New Zealand study. In L. Theron, M. Ungar, & L. Liebenberg (Eds.), Youth, resilience and culture - commonalities and complexities. New York: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sanders, J., Munford, R., Liebenberg, L., & Ungar, M. (2014). Peer paradox: the tensions that peer relationships raise for vulnerable youth. Child & Family Social Work. doi:10.1111/cfs.12188.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sellers, R. M., & Shelton, J. N. (2003). The role of racial identity in perceived racial discrimination. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 84(5), 1079–1092.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Statistics Canada (2010). National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY). http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=4450. Accessed 30 Mar 2015.

  • Steinberg, L., Blatt-Eisengart, I., & Cauffman, E. (2006). Patterns of competence and adjustment among adolescents from authoritative, authoritarian, indulgent, and neglectful homes: a replication in a sample of serious juvenile offenders. Journal of Research on Adolescence, 16(1), 47–58.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stone, A. L., Becker, L. G., Huber, A. M., & Catalano, R. F. (2012). Review of risk and protective factors of substance use and problem use in emerging adulthood. Addictive Behaviors, 37, 747–775.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun, R. C. F., & Shek, D. T. L. (2012). Positive youth development, life satisfaction and problem behaviour among Chinese adolescents in Hong Kong: a replication. Social Indicators Research, 105, 541–559.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sveinsson, K. P. (2008). A tale of two Englands -‘Race’ and violent crime in the press. U.K.: Runnymede Trust.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thapar, A., Collishaw, S., Pine, D. S., & Thapar, A. K. (2012). Depression in adolescence. Lancet, 379, 1056–1067.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Theokas, C., & Lerner, R. M. (2006). Observed ecological assets in families, schools, and neighborhoods: conceptualization, measurement and relations with positive and negative developmental outcomes. Applied Developmental Science, 10, 61–74.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Twenge, J., & Nolen-Hoeksema, S. (2002). Age, gender, race, socioeconomic status, and birth cohort difference on the Children’s Depressive Inventory: a meta-analysis. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 111, 579–588.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ungar, M., Liebenberg, L., Armstrong, M., Dudding, P., & Van de Vijver, F. (2013). Patterns of psychosocial service use: individual and contextual risk factors, and resilience among adolescents using multiple services. Child Abuse and Neglect, 37, 150–159. doi:10.1016/j.chiabu.2012.05.007.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Dommelen-Gonzalez, E., Deardorff, J., Herd, D., & Minnis, A. M. (2015). Homies with aspirations and positive peer network ties: associations with reduced frequent substance use among gang-affiliated Latino youth. Journal of Urban Health. doi:10.1007/s11524-014-9922-3.

    Google Scholar 

  • Washburn, I. J., & Capaldi, D. M. (2014). Influences on boys’ marijuana use in high school: a two-part random intercept growth model. Journal of Research on Adolescence, 24(1), 117–130.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams, L. R., Degnan, K. A., Perez-Edgar, K. E., Henderson, H. A., Rubin, K. H., Pine, D. S., et al. (2008). Impact of behavioral inhibition and parenting style on internalizing and externalizing problems from early childhood through adolescence. Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, 37, 1063–1075.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodward, L. J., Fergusson, D. M., & Horwood, L. J. (2006). Gender differences in the transition to early parenthood. Development and Psychopathology, 18, 275–294. doi:10.1017/S0954579406060159.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MAUX0901) for funding this research programme. They also gratefully thank all the young people and their supporters who participated in the research. They acknowledge the contribution of The Resilience Research Centre in Canada. Finally, they acknowledge the contribution of The Donald Beasley Institute, Kapiti Youth Support, Youthline Auckland and all the other researchers who helped with the research.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Otago, PO Box 4345, Christchurch, 8140, New Zealand

    Joseph M. Boden & Geraldine F. H. McLeod

  2. School of Social Work, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

    Jackie Sanders & Robyn Munford

  3. Resilience Research Centre, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada

    Linda Liebenberg

Authors
  1. Joseph M. Boden
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jackie Sanders
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Robyn Munford
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Linda Liebenberg
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Geraldine F. H. McLeod
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Joseph M. Boden.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Boden, J.M., Sanders, J., Munford, R. et al. Paths to Positive Development: a Model of Outcomes in the New Zealand Youth Transitions Study. Child Ind Res 9, 889–911 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12187-015-9341-3

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12187-015-9341-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation