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Estimating Homelessness in the Netherlands Using a Capture-Recapture Approach

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Abstract

This study focuses on the homeless population in the Netherlands, as an indicator of social exclusion. By applying the capture-recapture (CRC) methodology to three registers, not only the size of the homeless population could be estimated, but also its composition in terms of gender, age, place of living, and origin could be depicted. Because of the use of three registers and the availability of background characteristics for each of the registers, the usual stringent assumptions of capture recapture methodology is circumvented. This advanced application of CRC to estimate the homeless population on the national level, has led to official figures for five subsequent reference dates (January 1st of 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013). In 2009 the size of the total homeless population in the Netherlands was estimated at 17,767, of which 5169 were registered on one of the three lists. Between 2009 and 2012 the estimated size of the population increased, which was largely due to the financial crisis. For all reference dates, the composition of this population showed that generally more men than women were registered and that homeless people in the age category of 30–49 years old were registered more than the younger or older age groups. Compared to the general Dutch population, the homeless population includes relatively many men, many people aged 30–49 years and people with a non-western background.

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Notes

  1. Plant-capture is a modified capture-recapture method, in which the proportion of observers or “plants” that are “captured” by the enumerators during S-night, is used to evaluate the accuracy of the count.

  2. Each of the four largest cities accommodates >250,000 inhabitants.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Jacqueline van Beuningen for her help with the model selection procedure. Also, we are grateful for the anonymous reviewers’ constructive and thoughtful comments to our manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Social-Economic and Spatial Statistics, Statistics Netherlands, P.O. Box 4481, 6401 CZ, Heerlen, The Netherlands

    A. M. Coumans & H. Schmeets

  2. Department of Methodology and Statistics, Faculty of Behavioural and Social Sciences, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80.140, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    M. Cruyff & P. G. M. Van der Heijden

  3. Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

    P. G. M. Van der Heijden

  4. Onderzoekscentrum Maatschappelijke Zorg (Omz), Public Health, UMC St Radboud, Radboud University Nijmegen, Huispost 117 Omz, P.O. Box 9101, 6500 HB, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

    J. Wolf

  5. Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands

    H. Schmeets

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  1. A. M. Coumans
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  2. M. Cruyff
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  3. P. G. M. Van der Heijden
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Correspondence to A. M. Coumans.

Appendix

Appendix

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Table 4 Parameter estimates model 4
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Table 5 Coding scheme of the variables used
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Coumans, A.M., Cruyff, M., Van der Heijden, P.G.M. et al. Estimating Homelessness in the Netherlands Using a Capture-Recapture Approach. Soc Indic Res 130, 189–212 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-015-1171-7

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