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The Increasing Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity of Children and Youth in China, 1989–2009: An Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

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Abstract

As childhood overweight and obesity, especially its cohort component, can be viewed as the leading edge of future changes in the population prevalence of obesity, scholars are concerned about what temporal effects drive the rise of childhood overweight/obesity prevalence worldwide. Using eight waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey from 1989 to 2009, this research conducts hierarchical age–period–cohort analyses to investigate temporal patterns of the rising overweight/obesity prevalence for children and youth aged 2–25 in the world’s most populous country. We find that the age trajectory of overweight/obesity reaches a nadir around age 14 and 15 and increases afterwards. Children and youth are more likely to be overweight/obese in the most recent period of observation, and this pattern is persistent across different socio-demographic groups. Moreover, a statistically significant cohort component is detected for the overall population and further analyses reveal that this cohort increase is mainly restricted to males. Demonstrating distinct age, period, and cohort components embedded in the rise of childhood overweight/obesity in China, this research lends support to the global epidemic of obesity and calls attention to a new phase of the Epidemiologic Transition in China.

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Notes

  1. The income tertiles for specifying high-, medium- and low-income families in a specific survey wave are (in Chinese yuan): 1208.6 and 3508.3 in the 1989 wave, 1306.6 and 3507.9 in the 1991 wave, 1364.9 and 4020.7 in the 1993 wave, 1769.7 and 5011.5 in the 1997 wave, 2008.0 and 6396.0 in the 2000 wave, 2190.7 and 8413.8 in the 2004 wave, 2201.2 and 8974.4 in the 2006 wave, and 3580.4 and 12922.8 in the 2009 wave.

  2. Because there are fewer degrees of freedom attributable to cohort effects (the total number of birth cohort groups reduced from eight for five-year width to six for eight-year width), the modest fluctuation is expected.

  3. Alternative STATA modules for IE analyses include -ie_rate-, -ie_reg-, and -ie_norm-, which do not require a singular design matrix for estimation. See Powers (2014) IE_RATE: Stata module to conduct age, period, and cohort (APC) analysis of tabular rate data using the intrinsic estimator. Statistical Software Components.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z1, Canada

    Qiang Fu

  2. Department of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA

    Kenneth C. Land

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Correspondence to Qiang Fu.

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Fu, Q., Land, K.C. The Increasing Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity of Children and Youth in China, 1989–2009: An Age–Period–Cohort Analysis. Popul Res Policy Rev 34, 901–921 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-015-9372-y

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