Abstract
Today China has the world’s largest older population, defined as aged 65 and over. The size of the older population in the United States is also large, ranking third in the world in 2000. The combined older populations of China and the United States represented 29 percent of the world’s population 65 and older in 2000. The large older populations in these two countries are projected to more than double in size over the next three decades. Although currently China is younger than the United States and many other countries, its aging process will accelerate in the next few decades, with a speed surpassing the experience of many Western European countries and the United States. This paper examines the current and future situation of the older population in China and compares China’s aging with that of the United States, using 2000 and earlier censuses from both countries as well as the population projections data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Growth of the older population, changes in the age distribution in China with comparisons to the United States, and the projections of the older population’s future growth are analyzed and presented. The paper also discusses sources of financial support and living arrangements in China and the United States. Finally, the paper assesses trends in the older population support ratio and the implications for the economic well-being of an aging population.
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Notes
The U.S. Census Bureau constructs population estimates and projections for every country (with a population of more than 5,000) in the world, utilizing all available demographic data from censuses, vital registrations, demographic health surveys, and other sources. Published data are adjusted where appropriate and assumptions are made regarding future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration. The resulting population estimates and projections are available on the International Data Base at http://www.census.gov/ipc/idbnew.html. For more information on the projections see http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbr0210.html. Unforeseen events can rapidly modify the demographic environment. As with any projection, uncertainties about the levels and directions of future fertility, mortality, and net immigration levels mean that the actual future population is never identical to the projected population. Therefore, caution should be used when interpreting the results from this paper.
We use results from the censuses China conducted in 1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, and 2000, and U.S. decennial censuses conducted from 1950 to 2000.
See Banister (1987) for a summary of public health initiatives and health care status in China from the 1950s to the mid 1980s.
China also experienced a temporary sharp drop in the total fertility rate from 1959 to 1961 due to the famine and natural disasters during that period.
The sole major exception was the sudden increase in the infant mortality rates from 1959 to 1962 due to the famine and natural disasters during that period.
The Baby Boomer generation in the United States is made up of people born from 1946 to 1964.
There are also several differences between China’s 1990 and 2000 censuses regarding employment questions. The 2000 Census asked individuals aged 15 and above whether they had performed compensated work for one hour or more during the week of October 25–31, 2000 (just prior to the census date of November 1). The 1990 Census asked individuals aged 15 and above whether they had performed compensated work for 16 days or more in June, the month just prior to the July 1 census date. Categories listed for those not working in the 2000 Census are nearly identical to those listed in the 1990 Census. For the working older population, who are overwhelmingly engaged in agriculture, the questionnaire differences between the two censuses may balance out — June is a busier agricultural time period than late October, biasing employment upwards in the 1990 Census. However, the lower work threshold of one hour of work used in the 2000 census would tend to bias employment statistics upwards in the 2000 Census.
These data come from the Current Population Survey data (U.S. Census Bureau, 2002).
Grandparents may be under the age of 65.
The number one reason for migration among the older population was due to urban planning (42 percent for men and 37 percent for women), which involved the demolition of their housing unit and their relocation elsewhere (China State Council and National Bureau of Statistics, 2002).
The reason-for-moving data come from the Current Population Survey (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000c).
Under pay-as-you-go financing, contributions from workers are used to pay benefits to current retirees.
Under a defined-benefit scheme the retirement benefit is predetermined, while under a defined-contribution scheme the benefit is determined by the contribution and investment return.
For details on the history of Social Security, see U.S. Social Security Administration (2003).
U.S. Census Bureau, 2000b.
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This paper reports the results of research and analysis undertaken by U.S. Census Bureau staff. It has undergone a Census Bureau review more limited in scope than that given to official U.S. Census Bureau publications. This report is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of work in progress.
The use of data not generated by the U.S. Census Bureau precludes performing the same statistical reviews on those data as the U.S. Census Bureau performs on its own data.
The use of data not generated by the U.S. Census Bureau precludes performing the same statistical reviews on those data as the U.S. Census Bureau performs on its own data.
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Kincannon, C.L., He, W. & West, L.A. Demography of Aging in China and the United States and the Economic Well-Being of their Older Populations. J Cross Cult Gerontol 20, 243–255 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10823-006-9015-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10823-006-9015-1