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Projected prevalence of US adults with self-reported doctor-diagnosed arthritis, 2005 to 2050

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Abstract

Using population-based survey data from the 2003 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS), we estimated the population prevalence of self-reported, doctor-diagnosed arthritis in the US from 2005 to 2050. Projected arthritis-prevalence data were estimated in 5-year increments along sex- and age-specific categories by multiplying the 2003 BRFSS arthritis prevalence data by the sex-stratified US Census projections. During this 45-year period, we estimate that the total number of US adults aged 20 years or older with arthritis will increase from 60 million to 96 million, a 1.6-fold increase. The increase is projected to be greater in those aged 65 years or older (a 2.3-fold increase) than for those aged 20 to 65 (a 1.3-fold increase). Given increases in the prevalence of known arthritis risk factors (e.g., obesity, Hispanic origin) our projections might underestimate the prevalence of arthritis in the coming years.

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Acknowledgements

This project was supported in part with grants from the American College of Rheumatology and NIH AR49720-01A1.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Rheumatology, Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical Center, 5501 Hopkins Bayview Circle, Room 1B.17, Baltimore, MD, 21224, USA

    Kevin R. Fontaine & Steffany Haaz

  2. Department of Psychiatry, Weill Medical College of Cornell University, 21 Bloomingdale Road, 2 South, White Plains, NY, 10605, USA

    Moonseong Heo

Authors
  1. Kevin R. Fontaine
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  2. Steffany Haaz
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  3. Moonseong Heo
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Correspondence to Kevin R. Fontaine.

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Fontaine, K.R., Haaz, S. & Heo, M. Projected prevalence of US adults with self-reported doctor-diagnosed arthritis, 2005 to 2050. Clin Rheumatol 26, 772–774 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10067-007-0556-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10067-007-0556-7

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