Skip to main content
Log in

How useful are screening instruments for toddlers to predict outcome at age 4? General development, language skills, and symptom severity in children with a false positive screen for autism spectrum disorder

  • Original Contribution
  • Published:
European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Screening instruments for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) often generate many false positives. It is argued that these children may have other developmental difficulties and are also in need of thorough assessment and early intervention. The current study looked at the predictive validity of positive screens on the Checklist for Early Signs of Developmental Disorders (CESDD) and the Early Screening of Autistic Traits questionnaire (ESAT) at age 2 towards language, cognitive function, and symptom severity at age 4. Children who screened positive on the ESAT scored lower for both language and cognitive functioning at age 4 compared with children who screened negative on the ESAT. Also, the more signs of ASD that were recognized on the CESDD or ESAT, the lower the scores for language and cognitive functioning at age 4. False positive screens could be differentiated from true positive screens on the CESDD only in symptom severity score on the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS). It seems that early screeners for ASD also detect children with other developmental disorders and that diagnostic instruments such as the ADOS are warranted to differentiate between children with ASD and other developmental problems.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Dietz C, Swinkels S, van Daalen E, van Engeland H, Buitelaar JK (2006) Screening for autistic spectrum disorder in children aged 14 to 15 months. II: Population screening with the Early Screening of Autistic Traits questionnarie (ESAT). Design and general findings. J Autism Dev Disord 36:713–722. doi:10.1007/s10803-006-0114-4

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  2. Swinkels SHN, Dietz C, van Daalen E, Kerkhof IHGM, van Engeland H, Buitelaar JK (2006) Screening for autistic spectrum in children aged 14 to 15 months. I: The development of the Early Screening of Autistic Traits questionnaire (ESAT). J Autism Dev Disord 36:723–732. doi:10.1007/s10803-006-0115-0

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  3. Dereu M, Warreyn P, Raymaekers R, Meirsschaut M, Pattyn G, Schietecatte I, Roeyers H (2010) Screening for autism spectrum disorders in Flemish day-care centres with the Checklist for Early Signs of Developmental Disorders. J Autism Dev Disord 40:1247–1258. doi:10.1007/s10803-010-0984-0

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  4. Reznick JS, Baranek GT, Reavis S, Watson LR, Crais ER (2007) A parent-report instrument for identifying one-year olds at risk for an eventual diagnosis of autism: the First Year Inventory. J Autism Dev Disord 37:1691–1710. doi:10.1007/s10803-006-0303-y

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  5. Matson JL, Wilkins J, Sevin JA, Knight C, Boisjorli JA, Sharp B (2009) Reliability and item content of the Baby and Infant Screen for Children with aUtIsm Traits (BISCUIT): parts 1–3. Res Autism Spectr Disord 3:336–344. doi:10.1016/j.rasd.2008.08.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Matson JL, Wilkins J, Sharp B, Knight C, Sevin JA, Boisjoli JA (2009) Sensitivity and specificity of the Baby and Infant Screen for Children with aUtIsm Traits (BISCUIT): validity and cutoff scores for autism and PDD-NOS in toddlers. Res Autism Spectr Disord 3:924–930. doi:10.1016/j.rasd.2009.04.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Baron-Cohen S, Allen J, Gillberg C (1992) Can autism be detected at 18 months? The needle, the haystack, and the CHAT. Br J Psychiatry 161:839–843. doi:10.1192/bjp.161.6.839

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  8. Robins DL, Fein D, Barton ML, Green JA (2001) The Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers: an initial study investigating the early detection of autism and pervasive developmental disorders. J Autism Dev Disord 31:131–144. doi:10.1023/A:1010738829569

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Allison C, Baron-Cohen S, Wheelwright S, Charman T, Richler J, Pasco G, Brayne C (2008) The Q-CHAT (Quantitative Checklist for Autism in Toddlers): a normally distributed quantitative measure of autistic traits at 18–24 months of age: preliminary report. J Autism Dev Disord 38:1414–1425. doi:10.1007/s10803-007-0509-7

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  10. Filipek PA, Accardo PJ, Banarek GT, Cook EH, Dawson G, Gordon B et al (1999) The screening and diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders. J Autism Dev Disord 29:439–484. doi:10.1023/A:1021943802493

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. Rogers SJ, Vismara LA (2008) Evidence-based comprehensive treatments for early autism. J Clin Child Adolesc Psychol 37:8–38. doi:10.1080/15374410701817808

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  12. Jacobson JW, Mulick JA, Green G (1998) Cost-benefit estimates for early intensive behavioral intervention for young children with autism-general model and single state case. Behav Interv 13:201–226. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099-078X(199811)13:4<201::AID-BIN17>3.0.CO;2-R

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. National Research Council (2001) Educating children with autism. National Academy Press, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  14. Renty J, Roeyers H (2006) Satisfaction with formal support and education for children with autism spectrum disorder: the voices of the parents. Child: Care. Health Dev 32:371–385. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2214.2006.00584.x

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  15. Kleinman JM, Robins DL, Ventola PE, Pandey J, Boorstein HC, Esser EL et al (2008) The Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers: a follow-up study investigating the early detection of autism spectrum disorders. J Autism Dev Disord 38:827–839. doi:10.1007/s10803-007-0450-9

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  16. Pandey J, Verbalis A, Robins DL, Boorstein H, Klin A, Babitz T et al (2008) Screening for autism in older and younger toddlers with the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers. Autism 12:513–535. doi:10.1177/1362361308094503

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  17. American Psychiatric Association (1994) Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th edn, text rev). American Psychiatric Association, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  18. ZERO TO THREE: National Center for Infants, Toddlers and Families (1994) Diagnostic Classification of Mental Health and Developmental Disorders of Infancy and Early Childhood. ZERO TO THREE, Washington DC

  19. Baron-Cohen S, Cox A, Baird G, Swettenham J, Nightingale N, Morgan K et al (1996) Psychological markers in the detection of autism in infancy in a large population. Br J Psychiatry 168:158–163. doi:10.1192/bjp.168.2.158

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. Wright K, Poulin-Dubois D (2011) Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (M-CHAT) screening at 18 months of age predicts concurrent understanding of desires, word learning and expressive vocabulary. Res Autism Spectr Disord. doi:10.1016/j.rasd.2011.04.004

    Google Scholar 

  21. Baird G, Charman T, Baron-Cohen S, Cox A, Swettenham J, Wheelwright S, Drew A (2000) A screening instrument for autism at 18 months of age: a 6-year follow-up study. J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry 39:694–702. doi:10.1097//00004583-2000006000-00007

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  22. Eaves LC, Ho HH (2004) The very early identification of autism: outcome to age 4½-5. J Autism Dev Disord 34:367–378. doi:10.1023/B:JADD.0000037414.33270.a8

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  23. Dereu M, Raymaekers R, Warreyn P, Schietecatte I, Meirsschaut M, Roeyers H (2012) Can child care workers contribute to the early detection of autism spectrum disorders? A comparison between screening instruments with child care workers versus parents as informants. J Autism Dev Disord 42:781–796. doi:10.1007/s10803-011-1307-9

    Google Scholar 

  24. Lord C, Rutter M, DiLavore P, Risi S (1999) Autism Diagnosic Observation Schedule: manual. Western Psychological Services, Los Angeles

    Google Scholar 

  25. Rutter M, LeCouteur A, Lord C (2003) Autism Diagnostic Interview Revised: manual. Western Pscyhological Services, Los Angeles

    Google Scholar 

  26. Gotham K, Risi S, Pickles A, Lord C (2007) The Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule: revised algorithms for improved diagnostic validity. J Autism Dev Disord 37:613–627. doi:10.1007/s10803-006-0280-1

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  27. Risi S, Lord C, Gotham K, Corsello C, Chrysler C, Szatmari P et al (2006) Combining information from multiple sources in the diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder. J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry 45:1094–1103. doi:10.1097/01.chi.0000227880.42780.0e

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  28. Mullen EM (1995) Mullen Scales of Early Learning. American Guidance Service, Circle Pines

    Google Scholar 

  29. Groen WB, Swinkels SH, van der Gaag RJ, Buitelaar JK (2007) Finding effective screening instruments for autism using Bayes theorem. Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med 161:415–416. doi:10.1001/archpedi.161.4.415

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  30. de Bildt A, Oosterling IJ, van Lang NDJ, Sytema S, Minderaa RB, van Engeland H et al (2011) Standardized ADOS scores: measuring severity of autism spectrum disorders in a Dutch sample. J Autism Dev Disord 41:311–319. doi:10.1007/s10803-010-1057-0

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  31. Gotham K, Risi S, Dawson G, Tager-Flusberg H, Joseph R, Carter A et al (2008) A replication of the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS) revised algorithms. J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry 47:642–651. doi:10.1097/CHI.0b013e31816bffb7

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  32. Gray KM, Tonge BJ, Sweeney DJ (2008) Using the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule with young children with developmental delay: evaluating diagnostic validity. J Autism Dev Disord 38:657–667. doi:10.1007/s10803-007-0432-y

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  33. Oosterling I, Roos S, de Bildt A, Rommelse N, de Jonge M, Visser J et al (2010) Improved diagnostic validity of the ADOS revised algorithms: a replication study in an independent sample. J Autism Dev Disord 40:689–703. doi:10.1007/s10803-009-0915-0

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  34. Overton T, Fielding C, de Alba RG (2008) Exploratory analysis of the ADOS revised algorithm: specificity and predictive value with Hispanic children referred for autism spectrum disorders. J Autism Dev Disord 38:1166–1169. doi:10.1007/s10803-007-0488-8

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  35. Gotham K, Pickles A, Lord C (2009) Standardizing ADOS scores for a measure of severity in autism spectrum disorders. J Autism Dev Disord 39:693–705. doi:10.1007/s10803-008-0674-3

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  36. Schaerlaekens A, Zink I, van Ommeslaeghe K (2003) Reynell Taalontwikkelingsschalen. Handleiding-Tweede versie. Swets & Zeitlinger, Lisse

  37. Rutter M, Bailey A, Lord C (2003) Social Communication Questionnaire (SCQ). Western Psychological Services, Los Angeles

    Google Scholar 

  38. Yirmiya N, Charman T (2010) The prodrome of autism: early behavioural and biological signs, regression, peri- and post-natal development and genetics. J Child Psychol Psychiatry 51:432–458. doi:10.1111/j.1469-7610.2010.02214.x

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  39. Ozonoff S, Iosif AM, Baguio F, Cook IC, Hill MM, Hutman T et al (2010) A prospective study of the emergence of early behavioural signs of autism. J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry 49:256–266. doi:10.1097/00004583-201003000-00009

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  40. Dietz C, Swinkels SHN, van Daalen E, van Engeland H, Buitelaar JK (2007) Parental compliance after screening social development in toddlers. Arch Ped Adoles Med 161:363–368. doi:10.1001/archpedi.161.4.363

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

Partial funding for this research was provided by support from Steunpunt Expertisenetwerken and Vlaamse Vereniging Autisme. We thank the day-care centres, the children and their families for their participation to the study. Special thanks goes to the participating diagnostic centra across Flanders (COS and RCA Gent, COS and RCA Antwerpen, COS and RCA Brussel, COS and ECA Leuven).

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Ethical standards

This study was approved by the ethics committee of the Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences of Ghent University, where the study was conducted.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mieke Dereu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Dereu, M., Roeyers, H., Raymaekers, R. et al. How useful are screening instruments for toddlers to predict outcome at age 4? General development, language skills, and symptom severity in children with a false positive screen for autism spectrum disorder. Eur Child Adolesc Psychiatry 21, 541–551 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00787-012-0280-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00787-012-0280-y

Keywords

Navigation