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The use of regression methods for the investigation of trends in suicide rates in Hungary between 1963 and 2011

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Abstract

Purpose

Suicide rates in Hungary have been analyzed from different aspects in recent decades. However, only descriptive rates have been reported. The aim of our epidemiological study was to characterize the pattern of annual rates of suicide in Hungary during the period 1963–2011 by applying advanced statistical methods.

Methods

Annual suicide rates per 100,000 population (>6 years) for gender, age group and suicide method were determined from published frequency tables and reference population data obtained from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office. Trends and relative risks of suicide were investigated using negative binomial regression models overall and in stratified analyses (by gender, age group and suicide method). Joinpoint regression analyses were additionally applied to characterize trends and to find turning points during the period 1963–2011.

Results

Overall, 178,323 suicides (50,265 females and 128,058 males) were committed in Hungary during the investigated period. The risk of suicide was higher among males than females overall, in all age groups and for most suicide methods. The annual suicide rate exhibited a significant peak in 1982 and remained basically constant after 2006. Different segmented patterns were observed for the suicide rates in the various age groups.

Conclusions

Suicide rates revealed segmented linear pattern. This is the first detailed trend analysis with risk estimates obtained via joinpoint and negative binomial regression methods simultaneously for age-specific suicide frequencies in Hungary.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the European Union and the State of Hungary, co-financed by the European Social Fund in the framework of TÁMOP-4.2.4.A/2-11/1-2012-0001 ‘National Excellence Program’ and TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV-2012-0052.

Our thanks are due to Anna Juhasz and Beata Temesvary for valuable discussions concerning suicide as a psychiatric phenomenon in Hungary. We also thank Katalin Virag and Monika Szucs for helpful comments on the statistical methods used and for assistance in the reference population data collection.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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The article does not contain clinical studies or patient data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Medical Physics and Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Szeged, Korányi fasor 9, 6720, Szeged, Hungary

    Anna M. Laszlo, Adam Hulman, Ferenc Bari & Tibor A. Nyari

  2. Institute of Mathematics, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Budapest, Hungary

    Jozsef Csicsman

Authors
  1. Anna M. Laszlo
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  2. Adam Hulman
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  3. Jozsef Csicsman
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  4. Ferenc Bari
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  5. Tibor A. Nyari
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Anna M. Laszlo.

Additional information

F. Bari and T. A. Nyari contributed equally.

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Laszlo, A.M., Hulman, A., Csicsman, J. et al. The use of regression methods for the investigation of trends in suicide rates in Hungary between 1963 and 2011. Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol 50, 249–256 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00127-014-0926-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00127-014-0926-9

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