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The role of future unpredictability in human risk-taking

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Abstract

Models of risk-taking as used in the social sciences may be improved by including concepts from life history theory, particularly environmental unpredictability and life expectancy. Community college students completed self-report questionnaires measuring these constructs along with several well-known correlates. The frequency of risk-taking was higher for those with higher future unpredictability beliefs and shorter lifespan estimates (as measured by the Future Lifespan Assessment developed for this study), and unpredictability beliefs remained significant after accounting for standard predictors, such as sex and temperament. The results demonstrate the usefulness of applying concepts from life history theory to enhance our understanding of human behavior.

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  1. Department of Psychology, The University of Detroit Mercy, 8200 West Outer Drive, 48219, Detroit, MI

    Elizabeth M. Hill

  2. The University of Michigan, USA

    Elizabeth M. Hill, Lisa Thomson Ross & Bobbi S. Low

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  1. Elizabeth M. Hill
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Correspondence to Elizabeth M. Hill.

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Work described herein was supported by NIAAA grant T32 AA07477. A preliminary version of this paper was presented at the meetings of the Human Behavior and Evolution Society, June 1996, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois.

Elizabeth Hill, who received a Ph.D. from Tulane University, is associate professor of psychology at the University of Detroit Mercy and an adjunct faculty member with the University of Michigan Alcohol Research Center. She studies the development of alcoholism using an evolutionary analysis of the environment, particularly the subtheories of parental investment and life history theory.

Lisa Thomson Ross received a Ph.D. in social psychology from Wayne State University. She completed a postdoctoral fellowship at the University of Michigan Alcohol Research Center and is currently a research investigator at the University of Michigan School of Nursing. Her research relates to family unpredictability and social predictors of drinking, risk-taking, and mental health.

Bobbi S. Low is professor of resource ecology at the School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan. Her background is in behavioral and evolutionary ecology, and her current interests are human sex differences in risk-taking and resource use.

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Hill, E.M., Ross, L.T. & Low, B.S. The role of future unpredictability in human risk-taking. Hum Nat 8, 287–325 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02913037

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