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Handbook of Developmental Psychopathology pp 109–124Cite as

Modeling Strategies in Developmental Psychopathology Research: Prediction of Individual Change

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Abstract

Developmental psychopathologists often seek to explain change over time in psychiatric syndromes and behavioral constructs. Because the rate and form of change may be unique to particular children, complex interactions among person-level characteristics, environmental characteristics, genetic/biological characteristics, and time are often hypothesized and investigated (e.g., Petersen et al., 2012). However, before we can assess change over time in such constructs and before we can investigate how change differs across children, we must consider how to conceptualize the psychiatric constructs themselves, and we must consider what assumptions are required for quantifying change. In order to address these issues, we first briefly discuss preliminary statistical and conceptual issues involving the categorical versus continuous representation of psychopathological constructs at a given time point. Second we discuss some preconditions for quantifying change in such constructs across development. The third and fourth section of this chapter focus on methods for describing and predicting longitudinal change in psychopathological constructs; these methods allow recovery of interactions between person characteristics and time. We conclude with extension topics relevant to the longitudinal modeling of psychopathology and some design and data considerations for such studies.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Exact ages for participants in this Crime during the Transition to Adulthood dataset, at www.icpsr.umich.edu, were not available to the public. A physically aggressive conduct offense was considered to have occurred if an adolescent over the past 12 months participated in a group fight, shot or stabbed someone, pulled a knife or gun, badly injured someone, or threatened someone with a weapon. Other representations of this aggression construct would be possible.

  2. 2.

    The best-fitting number of classes was determined using Akaike’s information criterion and the Lo-Mendell-Rubin adjusted likelihood ratio test.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Psychology and Human Development Department, Quantitative Methods Program, Vanderbilt University, Peabody #552; 230 Appleton Place, Nashville, TN, 37203, USA

    Sonya K. Sterba Ph.D.

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  1. Sonya K. Sterba Ph.D.
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Correspondence to Sonya K. Sterba Ph.D. .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for the Study of Child Development, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA

    Michael Lewis

  2. Department of Psychology, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois, USA

    Karen D. Rudolph

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Sterba, S.K. (2014). Modeling Strategies in Developmental Psychopathology Research: Prediction of Individual Change. In: Lewis, M., Rudolph, K. (eds) Handbook of Developmental Psychopathology. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-9608-3_6

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