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Gepubliceerd in: Cognitive Therapy and Research 4/2022

17-01-2022 | Original Article

Does Hopelessness Accurately Predict How Bad You Will Feel in the Future? Initial Evidence of Affective Forecasting Errors in Individuals with Elevated Suicide Risk

Auteurs: Brian W. Bauer, Melanie A. Hom, Aleksandr T. Karnick, Caroline J. Charpentier, Lucas A. Keefer, Daniel W. Capron, M. David Rudd, Craig J. Bryan

Gepubliceerd in: Cognitive Therapy and Research | Uitgave 4/2022

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Abstract

Background

Forecasts about the future can dictate actions and behaviors performed in the present moment. Given that periods of elevated acute suicide risk often consist of elevated negative affect and hopelessness, individuals during these periods may more bias-prone and make decisions (e.g., suicide attempts) based on inaccurate affective forecasts about their futures (e.g., overestimating future pain/psychiatric symptom severity). The aim of this study was to examine the accuracy of hopelessness in predicting future feelings—an important step for understanding possible decision-making biases that may occur near elevated periods of acute suicide risk.

Methods

Secondary longitudinal data analyses were performed on two randomized clinical trial samples of active-duty military personnel (Ns = 97 and 172) with past-week suicide ideation and/or a lifetime suicide attempt history.

Results

Results were consistent with the affective forecasting literature; in both samples, individuals overestimated future pain.

Conclusions

Results from two studies offer preliminary evidence for the existence of affective forecasting errors near the time of a suicide attempt/during periods of elevated suicide risk.
Bijlagen
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Voetnoten
1
Our pattern of findings remained the same across all models when examining suicide attempt history as a moderator.
 
2
A total of 172 participants completed baseline measures and 152 were eligible (Rudd et al., 2012). We used all 172 participants in our analyses and imputed missing data points.
 
3
Similar to Study 1, our pattern of findings remained the same across all models when examining suicide attempt history as a moderator.
 
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Metagegevens
Titel
Does Hopelessness Accurately Predict How Bad You Will Feel in the Future? Initial Evidence of Affective Forecasting Errors in Individuals with Elevated Suicide Risk
Auteurs
Brian W. Bauer
Melanie A. Hom
Aleksandr T. Karnick
Caroline J. Charpentier
Lucas A. Keefer
Daniel W. Capron
M. David Rudd
Craig J. Bryan
Publicatiedatum
17-01-2022
Uitgeverij
Springer US
Gepubliceerd in
Cognitive Therapy and Research / Uitgave 4/2022
Print ISSN: 0147-5916
Elektronisch ISSN: 1573-2819
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10608-021-10285-7

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