Abstract
The study examines time-related patterns of recidivism in high-risk and medium-risk groups with regard to different types of sanctions. Official crime reports offer unique opportunities for time-related analyses of recidivism, because events (sentences, offenses, arrests) are recorded in “real-time” sequential order. A disproportional sample was drawn from the official crime records of the Swiss canton Jura, and - starting from a basic offense between 1977 and 1982 - prior as well as subsequent sentences were recorded for 60 months. Survival analyses were performed for this period, which was corrected for “incapacitation time”. Risk-factors - number of prior sentences, type of prior sentences, type of offenses - determine the survivor functions indepently of the type of sanction received for the basic offense, at medium as well as at high levels of risks. The uniformity of the survivor functions of different subgroups is assumed to be caused by the “internal dynamics” (Herrmann 1991) of recidivism.
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Karstedt, S. (1994). Determinants of Patterns of Recidivism: Some Results of Survival Analysis Based on Official Crime Records of the Swiss Canton Jura. In: Weitekamp, E.G.M., Kerner, HJ. (eds) Cross-National Longitudinal Research on Human Development and Criminal Behavior. NATO ASI Series, vol 76. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0864-5_6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0864-5_6
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