Overview of Theories and Hypotheses

Abstract

Theories should provide cogent explanations of natural phenomena. The mechanisms and processes a theory embraces should also provide a compelling structure for discerning causality, prediction, and change. Existing theories of delinquency fall short of these requirements in several ways. Some of the most durable correlates of delinquency, such as age and sex, are not explained by any theory. Moreover, contemporary theories compartmentalize thinking and focus attention on a limited domain within a complex web of information about delinquency. This approach encourages investigators to design studies by emphasizing one narrow set of constructs over another, which may be just as plausible. Other factors that encourage constriction of interest are the limits of existing statistical models used to explore causal pathways. Many causal modeling techniques can only accommodate a few variables at a time, forcing investigators to select probable candidates from a much larger array.