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Competing Theories Structure Design

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Design of Observational Studies

Part of the book series: Springer Series in Statistics ((SSS))

Abstract

In a well designed experiment or observational study, competing theories make conflicting predictions. Several examples, some quite old, are used to illustrate. Also discussed are: the goals of replication, empirical studies of reasons for effects, and the importance of systemic knowledge in eliminating errors.

About thirty years ago there was much talk that geologists ought only to observe and not theorise; and I well remember some one saying that at this rate a man might as well go into a gravel-pit and count the pebbles and describe the colours. How odd it is that anyone should not see that all observation must be for or against some view if it is to be of any service.

Charles Darwin 1861 [16] Letter to Henry Fawcett

What goes on in science is not that we try to have theories that accommodate our experiences; it’s closer that we try to have experiences that adjudicate among our theories.

Jerry Fodor [21, pages 202–203]

It takes a theory to kill a theory … given our need to have a systematic way of thinking about complicated reality.

Paul A. Samuelson [55, page 304]

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  1. Statistics Department Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 19104-6340, Philadelphia, PA, USA

    Paul R. Rosenbaum

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Rosenbaum, P.R. (2010). Competing Theories Structure Design. In: Design of Observational Studies. Springer Series in Statistics. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-1213-8_4

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