Top

Cognitive Therapy and Research

Gepubliceerd in:

05-01-2021 | Original Article

A Dissociation Between Two Cognitive Biases in Acute Stress Disorder: Preliminary Evidence for the Reverse Gambling Fallacy

Auteurs: Yaakov S. G. Hoffman, Yaira Hamama-Raz, Menachem Ben-Ezra, Osnat Lavenda

Gepubliceerd in: Cognitive Therapy and Research | Uitgave 4/2021

Abstract

Background

Rationality biases, such as the gambling fallacy (e.g., predicting future coin-tosses based on previous tosses) and the famous “Linda” conjunction fallacy (estimating the conjunction that “Linda” is both teller and feminist based on her description) have not been examined in people suffering from acute stress disorder (ASD). We analyze potential outcomes and align them with different theories.

Methods

To discern the precise pattern of rationality biases in persons with ASD, we examined performance on these 2 tasks within a month of the Hayian Super-Typhoon (August 27th, 2013). Out of a sample of 1001 persons, 82 had clinical ASD and their performance was compared to the remaining 919 participants.

Results

A specific link between ASD and rationality biases revealed that although conjunction task performance was not associated with ASD diagnosis, coin-task performance was. Namely, responding “Heads” to a 6th coin-toss after 5 successive “Heads” (reverse gambling fallacy) was robustly linked with ASD diagnosis.

Conclusion

The results align with the bridging of trauma theories claiming that trauma symptoms are generated by disequilibrium following trauma exposure, with prospect theory’s notion of chance, which is conceived as belief in equilibrium restoration. Such disequilibrium following trauma exposure is thus linked with the belief underlying reverse gambling fallacy biases, namely “what-was-will-be”. Implications regarding themes important to address in therapy are mentioned.

vorige artikel To Approach or to Avoid: The Role of Ambivalent Motivation in Attentional Biases to Threat and Spider Fear

volgende artikel What’s in a Face? Amygdalar Sensitivity to an Emotional Threatening Faces Task and Transdiagnostic Internalizing Disorder Symptoms in Participants Receiving Attention Bias Modification Training

These follow up analyses yielded the same pattern for all types of post-hoc in the SPSS 25 package (e.g., Scheffe, Bonferroni, Tukey etc.).

American Psychiatric Association. (1994). Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (4th ed.). Washington, DC: Author.

American Psychiatric Association. (2013). Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (5th ed.). Washington, DC: Author.

Arnott, D. (2006). Cognitive biases and decision support systems development: A design science approach. Information Systems Journal, 16(1), 55–78. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2575.2006.00208.x.CrossRef

Ayton, P., & Fischer, I. (2004). The hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy: Two faces of subjective randomness? Memory & Cognition, 32(8), 1369–1378.CrossRef

Baddeley, A. (1998). Recent developments in working memory. Current Opinion in Neurobiology, 8(2), 234–238.PubMedCrossRef

Bard, M., & Sangrey, D. (1979). The crime Victim's book. New York: Basic Books.

Bar-Haim, Y., Lamy, D., Pergamin, L., Bakermans-Kranenburg, M. J., & Van Ijzendoorn, M. H. (2007). Threat-related attentional bias in anxious and nonanxious individuals: A meta-analytic study. Psychological Bulletin, 133(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.133.1.1.CrossRefPubMed

Ben-Ezra, M., Leshem, E., & Goodwin, R. (2015). In the wake of national trauma: Psychological reactions following the Charlie Hebdo terror attack. American Journal of Psychiatry, 172(8), 795–796.CrossRefPubMed

Ben-Ezra, M., Hamama-Raz, Y., Mahat-Shamir, M., Pitcho-Prelorentzos, S., & Kaniasty, K. (2017). Shattering core beliefs: Psychological reactions to mass shooting in Orlando. Journal of Psychiatric Research, 85, 56–58.PubMedCrossRef

Bensi, L., & Giusberti, F. (2007). Trait anxiety and reasoning under uncertainty. Personality and Individual Differences, 43(4), 827–838.CrossRef

Botsford, J., Steinbrink, M., Rimane, E., Rosner, R., Steil, R., & Renneberg, B. (2019). Maladaptive post-traumatic cognitions in interpersonally traumatized adolescents with post-traumatic stress disorder: An analysis of “stuck-points”. Cognitive Therapy and Research, 43(1), 284–294.CrossRef

Bryant, R. A., Creamer, M., O'Donnell, M., Silove, D., McFarlane, A. C., & Forbes, D. (2015). A comparison of the capacity of DSM-IV and DSM-5 acute stress disorder definitions to predict posttraumatic stress disorder and related disorders. The Journal of Clinical Psychiatry, 76(4), 391–397.PubMedCrossRef

Croskerry, P., Singhal, G., & Mamede, S. (2013). Cognitive debiasing 1: Origins of bias and theory of debiasing. BMJ Quality & Safety, 22, ii58–ii64.CrossRef

Derakshan, N., & Eysenck, M. W. (2010). Introduction to the special issue: Emotional states, attention, and working memory. Cognition and Emotion, 24(2), 189–199.CrossRef

Epstein, S., Denes-Raj, V., & Pacini, R. (1995). The Linda problem revisited from the perspective of cognitive-experiential self-theory. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21(11), 1124–1138.CrossRef

Epstein, S., Pacini, R., Denes-Raj, V., & Heier, H. (1996). Individual differences in intuitive–experiential and analytical–rational thinking styles. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71(2), 390–405.PubMedCrossRef

Eysenck, M. W., Derekeshan, N., Santos, R., & Calvo, M. G. (2007). Anxiety and cognitive performance: Attentional control theory. Emotion, 7(2), 336–352.PubMedCrossRef

Faul, F., Erdfelder, E., Buchner, A., & Lang, A. G. (2009). Statistical power analyses using G* power 3.1: Tests for correlation and regression analyses. Behavior Research Methods, 41(4), 1149–1160.PubMedCrossRef

Feeney, A., Shafto, P., & Dunning, D. (2007). Who is susceptible to conjunction fallacies in category-based induction? Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 14(5), 884–889.CrossRef

Foa, E. B., & Kozak, M. J. (1986). Emotional processing of fear: Exposure to corrective information. Psychological Bulletin, 99(1), 20. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.99.1.20-35.CrossRefPubMed

Foa, E. B., Steketee, G., & Rothbaum, B. O. (1989). Behavioral/cognitive conceptualizations of post-traumatic stress disorder. Behavior Therapy, 20(2), 155–176.CrossRef

Frankl, V. E. (1969). The will to meaning. New York: New American Library.

Furukawa, T. A., Kessler, R. C., Slade, T., & Andrews, G. (2003). The performance of the K6 and K10 screening scales for psychological distress in the Australian National Survey of mental health and well-being. Psychological Medicine, 33(2), 357–362.PubMedCrossRef

Gerhart, J. I., Canetti, D., & Hobfoll, S. E. (2015). Traumatic stress in overview: Definition, context, scope, and long-term outcomes. In Traumatic stress and long-term recovery (pp. 3–24). Cham: Springer.CrossRef

Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A. (1985). The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive Psychology, 17(3), 295–314.CrossRef

Grossman, E. S., Hoffman, Y. S., Berger, I., & Zivotofsky, A. Z. (2015). Beating their chests: University students with ADHD demonstrate greater attentional abilities on an inattentional blindness paradigm. Neuropsychology, 29(6), 882–887.PubMedCrossRef

Hamama-Raz, Y., Palgi, Y., Leshem, E., Ben-Ezra, M., & Lavenda, O. (2017). Typhoon survivors' subjective wellbeing—A different view of responses to natural disaster. PLoS One, 12(9), e0184327.PubMedPubMedCentralCrossRef

Harvey, A. G., & Bryant, R. A. (1998). The relationship between acute stress disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder: A prospective evaluation of motor vehicle accident survivors. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 66(3), 507–512.PubMedCrossRef

Hoe, S. L. (2008). Issues and procedures in adopting structural equation modeling technique. Journal of Applied Quantitative Methods, 3, 76–83.

Hoffman, Y., Shrira, A., Bodner, E., & Ben-Ezra, M. (2017). Prime and prejudice: The effect of priming context and prejudicial attitudes on post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms following immigrant violence. Psychiatry Research, 254, 224–231.PubMedCrossRef

Horowitz, M. J. (2011). Stress response syndromes: PTSD, grief, adjustment, and dissociative disorders. Jason Aronson, Incorporated.

Horowitz, M. J. (2015). Effects of trauma on sense of self. Journal of Loss and Trauma, 20(2), 189–193.CrossRef

Huber, J., Kirchler, M., & Stöckl, T. (2010). The hot hand belief and the gambler’s fallacy in investment decisions under risk. Theory and Decision, 68(4), 445–462.CrossRef

Janoff-Bulman, R. (1985). The aftermath of victimization: Rebuilding shattered assumptions. Trauma and its wake, 1, 15–35.

Janoff-Bulman, R. (1992). Our fundamental assumptions: Shattered assumptions. The free press.

Janoff-Bulman, R. (1999). Rebuilding shattered assumptions after traumatic life events. Coping: The psychology of what works, 305–323.

Janoff-Bulman, R. (2010). Shattered assumptions. Simon and Schuster.

Kahneman, D. (2003). A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. American Psychologist, 58(9), 697–720.CrossRefPubMed

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430–454.CrossRef

Kessler, R. C., Barker, P. R., Colpe, L. J., Epstein, J. F., Gfroerer, J. C., Hiripi, E., et al. (2003). Screening for serious mental illness in the general population. Archives of General Psychiatry, 60(2), 184–189.PubMedCrossRef

Kleim, B., Ehlers, A., & Glucksman, E. (2012a). Investigating cognitive pathways to psychopathology: Predicting depression and posttraumatic stress disorder from early responses after assault. Psychological Trauma: Theory, Research, Practice, and Policy, 4(5), –527.

Kleim, B., Ehring, T., & Ehlers, A. (2012b). Perceptual processing advantages for trauma-related visual cues in post-traumatic stress disorder. Psychological Medicine, 42(1), 173–181.PubMedCrossRef

Lavenda, O., Grossman, E. S., Ben-Ezra, M., & Hoffman, Y. (2017). Exploring DSM-5 criterion a in acute stress disorder symptoms following natural disaster. Psychiatry Research, 256, 458–460.PubMedCrossRef

Leon, M. R., & Revelle, W. (1985). Effects of anxiety on analogical reasoning: A test of three theoretical models. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49(5), 1302–1315.PubMedCrossRef

Liberali, J. M., Reyna, V. F., Furlan, S., Stein, L. M., & Pardo, S. T. (2012). Individual differences in numeracy and cognitive reflection, with implications for biases and fallacies in probability judgment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 25(4), 361–381.PubMedCrossRef

MacLaren, V., Ellery, M., & Knoll, T. (2015). Personality, gambling motives and cognitive distortions in electronic gambling machine players. Personality and Individual Differences, 73, 24–28.CrossRef

McNally, R. J., & Foa, E. B. (1987). Cognition and agoraphobia: Bias in the interpretation of threat. Cognitive Therapy and Research, 11(5), 567–581.CrossRef

Menzies, R. G., & Clarke, J. C. (1995). Danger expectancies and insight in acrophobia. Behavior Research and Therapy, 33(2), 215–221.CrossRef

Michael, T., Ehlers, A., & Halligan, S. L. (2005). Enhanced priming for trauma-related material in posttraumatic stress disorder. Emotion, 5(1), 103–112.PubMedCrossRef

Park, C. L., Riley, K. E., George, L. S., Gutierrez, I. A., Hale, A. E., Cho, D., & Braun, T. D. (2016). Assessing disruptions in meaning: Development of the global meaning violation scale. Cognitive Therapy & Research, 40(6), 831–846.CrossRef

Pelster, M. (2020). The gambler’s and hot-hand fallacies: Empirical evidence from trading data. Economics Letters, 187, 108887.CrossRef

Roney, C. J., & Trick, L. M. (2003). Grouping and gambling: A gestalt approach to understanding the gambler's fallacy. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology/Revue canadienne de psychologie expérimentale, 57(2), 69–75.PubMedCrossRef

Roney, C. J., & Trick, L. M. (2009). Sympathetic magic and perceptions of randomness: The hot hand versus the gambler's fallacy. Thinking & Reasoning, 15(2), 197–210.CrossRef

Rothbaum, B. O., & Davis, M. (2003). Applying learning principles to the treatment of post-trauma reactions. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1008(1), 112–121.PubMedCrossRef

Smith, K., & Bryant, R. A. (2000). The generality of cognitive bias in acute stress disorder. Behaviour Research and Therapy, 38(7), 709–715.PubMedCrossRef

Staab, J. P., Grieger, T. A., Fullerton, C. S., & Ursano, R. J. (1996). Acute stress disorder, subsequent posttraumatic stress disorder and depression after a series of typhoons. Anxiety, 2(5), 219–225.PubMedCrossRef

Stanovich, K., & West, R. F. (1998). Individual differences in framing and conjunction effects. Thinking & Reasoning, 4(4), 289–317.CrossRef

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 76(2), 105–110.CrossRef

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124–1131.PubMedCrossRef

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extension versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review., 90(4), 293–315.CrossRef

Warda, G., & Bryant, R. A. (1998). Cognitive bias in acute stress disorder. Behaviour Research and Therapy, 36(12), 1177–1183.PubMedCrossRef

West, R. F., Toplak, M. E., & Stanovich, K. E. (2008). Heuristics and biases as measures of critical thinking: Associations with cognitive ability and thinking dispositions. Journal of Educational Psychology, 100(4), 930–941.CrossRef

Titel: A Dissociation Between Two Cognitive Biases in Acute Stress Disorder: Preliminary Evidence for the Reverse Gambling Fallacy
Auteurs: Yaakov S. G. Hoffman
Yaira Hamama-Raz
Menachem Ben-Ezra
Osnat Lavenda
Publicatiedatum: 05-01-2021
Uitgeverij: Springer US
Gepubliceerd in: Cognitive Therapy and Research / Uitgave 4/2021
Print ISSN: 0147-5916
Elektronisch ISSN: 1573-2819
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10608-020-10196-z

Bohn Stafleu van Loghum

Deel dit onderdeel of sectie (kopieer de link)

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Log in om toegang te krijgen

Andere artikelen Uitgave 4/2021

Can Gender Differences in Distress Due to Difficult Voices Be Explained by Differences in Relating?

Examining the associations between interpersonal emotion regulation and psychosocial adjustment in emerging adulthood

Money Versus Social Rank: An Empirical Investigation of Unfairness in Social Anxiety

COVID-19 and Anxiety Sensitivity Across Two Studies in Argentina: Associations with COVID-19 Worry, Symptom Severity, Anxiety, and Functional Impairment

To Approach or to Avoid: The Role of Ambivalent Motivation in Attentional Biases to Threat and Spider Fear

Interpersonal Patterns in Social Anxiety Disorder: Predictors and Outcomes of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy